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384 Scenario planning
Provide high-class
lecture rooms/
facilities/restaurants
Provide effective
secretarial/administrative
support
Attract/retain
top national
academics
with strong
teaching/consultancy/
research capabilities
The business school
becomes increasingly
attractive to full-time
MBA students
The business school
becomes seen as
increasingly important
as a venue for short
premium-priced
executive programs
Figure 15.6 – An illustrative business idea for a business school
Increasing ability
to offer premium
salaries to academics
and administrators
Increased revenue
If the business school was part of a wider university, then utilization
of the school’s revenue to support financially weaker academic areas
would, of course, weaken the positive feedback loop for the school itself.
However, notice that if the external environment were to change – say
that technological developments enabled students to engage in video
conferencing with internationally recognized academics across the world
and that these new technologies were easy to deploy into the students’
own homes – then, perhaps,thecurrent business idea – with its emphasis
on employing full-time academics and providing attractive learning
environments for students who are able to physically attend the business
school – would appear less robust. Creating such plausible futures and
testing the essence of the business – the business idea – against them is
one use of scenario planning in a decision process.
Kees van der Heijden 2 has likened the testing of business ideas
against scenarios as ‘windtunneling’. Here the business idea is analogous
to a design of an airplane. The scenarios are analogous to wind
conditions – some are more extreme than others but all are plausible