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Scenario construction: the extreme-world method 381
Impact
T1 Increased product complexity +ve
T2 Shortening product life-cycles +ve
T3 Increasing demand for cheaper packaging −ve
T4 Customers prefer to buy from European suppliers +ve
T5 Increasing demand for shorter supply lead time +ve
T6 Increasing overall demand for integrated circuits +ve
T7 Far East production costs remain lower −ve
T8 Low level of local competition +ve
Figure 15.3 – Predetermined trends
Impact
U1 EC import duty requirements u11 Higher ++ve
u12 As is +ve
u13 Lower −ve
U2 Demand for ceramic device types
(replaced by plastics)
u21 Higher ++ve
u22 As is +ve
u23 Lower −ve
u24 V. low −−ve
U3 Success of new technology u31 Fast +ve
u32 Slow −ve
U4 Reaction of local competition u41 Strong −ve
u42 Weak +ve
U5 Internal corporate volumes u51 High +ve
u52 Low −ve
U6 Internal manufacturing policy u61 Make +ve
u62 Buy −ve
Figure 15.4 – Key uncertainties
of these trends on the survival and profitability of the semiconductor
manufacturing company are also given. Figure 15.4 gives the key uncertainties,
the ways in which these uncertainties can resolve themselves,
and their impact on the issue of concern.
Next, the positive impact uncertainties and all the predetermineds are
clustered together and a ‘storyline’ is developed that interlinks as many
of these elements as possible. The focus is on developing a plausible
chain of events that is, to some degree, causally related and which shows
how the future will unfold to result in the end-state captured within