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Studies in the psychological laboratory and cognitive inertia 371
to judge alternative office relocation possibilities for his enforced move
against this reference point on the profitability yardstick. If his current
office’s profitability is well above average, then the potential profitability
of alternative locations will tend to be seen as losses, relative to his current
position – even if the alternatives are well located and potentially fairly
profitable. As we discussed earlier in this chapter, choices involving
losses tend to risk taking. Alternatively, if it happened that the owner’s
choice of alternative office locations was between several offices that
offered greater potential for profitability than his current office, then
the alternatives would tend to be seen as gains, relative to his current
position. In such circumstances, his choice would tend to be risk averse.
Overall, skillful use of Russo and Schoemaker’s frame analysis worksheet
may prompt ‘multiple frame awareness’ which can be used to
challenge whether the decision maker’s current or usual frame is, in
fact, the most appropriate. However, evaluations of the worksheet’s
effectiveness have not yet been conducted. It is perhaps too early to say
whether it can truly promote creative decision making and overcome
mechanization and inertia in decision making.
Studies in the psychological laboratory and
cognitive inertia: a synthesis
Altogether, conservatism in opinion revision, anchoring and insufficient
adjustment, little weight placed upon disconfirming information, escalation
of commitment, and groupthink are likely to result in overconfidence
in the perceived degree of alignment between strategy and environment.
Such overconfidence is, we believe, likely to be relatively untouched by
interventions such as calls to ‘be alert’. As such, previously successful
ways of making decisions will be adhered to. As we saw in Chapter 9,
overconfidence in judgment is a systematic and pervasive finding of
behavioral decision research.
Figure 14.5 presents our view of a systemic relationship between the
results of behavioral decision research that we have detailed in this
chapter. In this diagram, we attempt to integrate the results of the
laboratory-based research with current knowledge of inertia in strategic
decision making.
In the diagram, the resting state of the system is that of a low
perceived level of environmental threat leading to low stress level, which
leads to strategic inertia. Conservatism, anchoring and unconflicted