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352 Resource allocation and negotiation problems The values attached to the possible levels of landscaping are shown below. Landscaping Retailer’s value Council’s value None 100 0 Partial 60 20 Complete 0 100 Details of the swing weights that the two parties attach to the three issues are shown below (100 = the most important swing). Retailer’s Council’s Change in outcome weight weight Land price increases from $2 million to $4 million 100 100 Community center not built to community center built 66 85 No landscaping to ‘complete landscaping’ 10 45 The following tentative deal has been reached. The land will be sold by the council for $2 million and a community center will be built, but there will be no landscaping of the site. (a) Assuming that, for both parties, the issues are mutually preference independent, verify that the values of the tentative deal to the retailer and the council are 62.50 and 36.96, respectively (using normalized weights). (b) Table 13.4 shows the values of all the possible deals to the two parties (assuming that only the outcomes given above are possible). This information is also displayed in Figure 13.9. The labels on the chart show the values of the deals to the council. (i) Use the chart and table to advise the two parties on which deal they should agree on. (ii) Use the concept of Pareto optimality to explain how you arrived at your recommendation. (c) One of the supermarket negotiators favors your recommended deal because, having seen the value of the deal to the supermarket and the value to the council, he concludes that the supermarket has got a better deal than the council. Is his thinking correct? Explain your answer.
References 353 References 1. Phillips, L. D. (1989) Decision Analysis in the 1990’s, in A. Shahini and R. Stainton (eds) Tutorial Papers in Operational Research 1989, Operational Research Society. 2. Phillips, L. D. (1989) People-centred Group Decision Support, in G. Doukidis, F. Land and G. Miller (eds) Knowledge-based Management Support Systems, Ellis Horwood, Chichester. 3. Barclay, S. (1988) A User’s Manual to EQUITY, Decision Analysis Unit, London School of Economics, London. 4. Raiffa, H. (1982) The Art and Science of Negotiation, Harvard <strong>University</strong> Press, Cambridge, MA. 5. Barclay, S. and Peterson, C. R. (1976) Multiattribute Utility Models for Negotiations, Technical Report DT/76-1, Decisions and Designs Inc., McLean, Virginia.
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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To Mary and Josephine, Jamie, Jerom
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viii Contents Chapter 16 The analyt
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x Foreword real problems, and it is
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xii Preface accountancy, where rece
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1 Introduction Complex decisions Im
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The role of decision analysis 3 you
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Applications of decision analysis 5
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Overview of the book 11 and profit.
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References 13 8. Walls, M. R., Mora
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16 How people make decisions involv
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28 Decisions involving multiple obj
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72 Introduction to probability Beca
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74 Introduction to probability prac
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76 Introduction to probability we w
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78 Introduction to probability whet
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80 Introduction to probability give
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82 Introduction to probability prob
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84 Introduction to probability deci
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86 Introduction to probability that
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88 Introduction to probability inte
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90 Introduction to probability subj
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92 Introduction to probability (5)
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94 Introduction to probability (a)
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96 Decision making under uncertaint
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98 Decision making under uncertaint
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100 Decision making under uncertain
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6 Decision trees and influence diag
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Constructing a decision tree 145 be
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Determining the optimal policy 147
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Decision trees and utility 149 succ
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Decision trees involving continuous
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Practical applications of decision
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Summary 163 where the resulting dec
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Exercises 165 other elements of the
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Exercises 167 (b) Assuming that Wes
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Exercises 169 is not hired, given t
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Exercises 171 failing to meet the p
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Exercises 173 why it was rational f
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Exercises 175 (11) In the Eagle Mou
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References 177 ABC Chemicals are pl
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7 Applying simulation to decision p
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Monte Carlo simulation 181 Of cours
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Monte Carlo simulation 183 Table 7.
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Applying simulation to a decision p
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Applying simulation to investment d
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Summary 205 Hull 10 ), some of them
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Exercises 207 (c) Use your simulati
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Exercises 209 For each factor the f
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Exercises 211 (b) Suppose that your
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References 213 6 million Therefore
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216 Revising judgments in the light
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9 Biases in probability assessment
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Introduction 249 of people watching
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The availability heuristic 251 make
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The representativeness heuristic 25
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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Other judgmental biases 263 Other j
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Is human probability judgment reall
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Exercises 271 Did you receive timel
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References 273 have been taken from
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References 275 18. Hamilton, D. L.
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10 Methods for eliciting probabilit
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Preparing for probability assessmen
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Consistency and coherence checks 28
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessing probabilities for very ra
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Exercises 293 Odds in favor of even
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References 295 13. Wright, G. and W
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298 Risk and uncertainty management
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300 Risk and uncertainty management
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Illustrative case study 403 (b) Att
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Illustrative case study 405 Stage 4
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Illustrative case study 407 importa
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Conclusion 409 combinations. Often
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References 411 2. Van der Heijden,
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414 The analytic hierarchy process
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17 Alternative decision-support sys
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Expert systems 429 generally agreed
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Expert systems 431 that knowledge e
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Expert systems 433 (1) That the sub
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Expert systems 435 information syst
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Expert systems 437 to focus on ‘t
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Expert systems 439 On the basis of
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Is there any intention/expectation
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Expert systems 443 described above
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Expert systems 445 body of knowledg
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Statistical models of judgment 447
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Comparisons 453 ‘broken leg’ cu
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Some final words of advice 455 Ques
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Some final words of advice 457 of t
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References 459 Table 17.1 - Summary
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References 461 20. Eisenhart, J. (1
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Chapter 3 Suggested answers to sele
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Suggested answers to selected quest
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472 Index Brown, C.E. 446 Brown, S.
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474 Index HIVIEW 58 Hodgkinson, G.P
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476 Index scenario intervention cas
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