Downloadable - About University

References 327
Mean score
Stay at Byron Avenue: 57.8
Move to Beach Park: 42.2
These results were in complete contrast to the prevailing views
expressed at the previous day’s meeting of the senior managers when
there was apparent enthusiasm, particularly from the President, for
the move to Beach Park. Discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy
between the model’s recommendation and the view of the senior
managers which was apparent at the last meeting.
(3) A confectionery company has to decide whether to launch a new
range of chocolate bars aimed at health conscious professional
people. You have been invited to observe all stages of the decision
process and to attend meetings relating to the decision. What
criteria would you use to judge the quality of the decision process?
(4) ‘For decisions involving groups of people, decision conferencing
is likely to be much more effective than the use of mathematical
aggregation of individuals’ judgments.’ Discuss.
(5) You are invited to observe this month’s meeting of the managers of
a hospital, which will take place in the senior manager’s office. The
main item on the agenda relates to the issue of whether a particular
ward should be temporarily closed because of funding problems.
Before the meeting the senior manager tells you that the hospital
management prides itself on efficient decision making. ‘My staff and
I work as a coherent team,’ he tells you. ‘We are busy people so
at our meetings we don’t waste time on endless discussion. There
is usually little dissent and we make decisions quickly and with
confidence that what we are doing is right. I think that you’ll see that
my colleagues will agree with me that the closure should go ahead.’
Draft a set of notes evaluating the senior manager’s approach
to decision making and, if necessary, suggest ways in which the
decision-making process at the hospital might be improved.
References
1. Ferrell, W. R. (1985) Combining Individual Judgments, in G. Wright (ed.)
Behavioral Decision Making, Plenum Press, New York, pp. 111–145.
2. Ashton, A. H. and Ashton, R. H. (1985) Aggregating Subjective Forecasts:
Some Empirical Results, Management Science, 31, 12, 1499–1508.