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References 295<br />

13. Wright, G. and Whalley, P. C. (1983) The Supra-additivity of Subjective<br />

Probability, in B. Stigum and F. Wenstop (eds) Foundation of Risk and Utility<br />

Theory with Applications, Reidel, Dordrecht.<br />

14. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics<br />

and Biases, Science, 185, 1124–1131.<br />

15. Lindley, D. V., Tversky, A. and Brown, R. V. (1979) On the Reconciliation of<br />

Probability Assessments, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 142, 146–180.<br />

See also Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1987) Assessing and Improving Judgmental<br />

Probability Forecasts, Omega, 15, 191–196, and Wright, G., Ayton, P.<br />

and Whalley, P. C. (1985) A General Purpose Aid to Judgmental Probability<br />

Forecasting, Decision Support Systems, 1, 333–340.<br />

16. Einhorn, H. J. (1980) Overconfidence in Judgment, in R. A. Shweder, and<br />

D. W. Fiske, (eds) New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral<br />

Science: No 4, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco.<br />

17. Fischhoff, B. (1975) Hindsight? Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge<br />

on Judgment under Uncertainty, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human<br />

Perception and Performance, 1, 288–299.<br />

18. Von Winterfeldt, D. and Edwards, W. (1986) Decision Analysis and Behavioral<br />

Research, Cambridge <strong>University</strong> Press, New York.

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