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294 Methods for eliciting probabilities
(2) Use the probability method to elicit a colleague’s subjective probability
distribution for his or her marks in their next decision
analysis assignment.
(3) Repeat the above exercise for predictions of the starting salary
distribution in his or her first employment after completing their
current educational course of study.
References
1. Spetzler, C. S. and Stäel von Holstein, C. A. (1975) Probability Encoding in
Decision Analysis, Management Science, 22, 340–352.
2. Shephard, G. G. and Kirkwood, C. W. (1994) Managing the Judgmental
Probability Elicitation Process: A Case Study of Analyst/Manager Interaction,
IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 41, 414–425.
3. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. and Phillips, L. D. (1981) Calibration of Probabilities:
State of the Art to 1980, in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky
(eds) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University
Press, New York.
4. For more details of the probability approach see Stäel von Holstein, C. A.
and Matheson, J. (1979) A Manual for Encoding Probability Distributions,
SRI International, August.
5. Seaver, D. A., Von Winterfeldt, D. and Edwards, W. (1978) Eliciting Subjective
Probability Distributions on Continuous Variables, Organisational
Behavior and Human Performance, 21, 379–391.
6. Wallsten, T. S. and Budescu, D. V. (1983) Encoding Subjective Probabilities:
A Psychological and Psychometric Review, Management Science, 29, 151–173.
7. Bunn, D. W. and Thomas, H. (1975) Assessing Subjective Probability in
Decision Analysis, in D. J. White and K. C. Bowen (eds) The Role and Effectiveness
of Theories of Decision in Practice, Hodder and Stoughton, London.
8. For example, Beach, L. R. and Phillips, L. D. (1967) Subjective Probabilities
Inferred from Estimate and Bets, Journal of Experimental Psychology,
75, 354–359.
9. For example, Winkler, R. L. (1967) The Assessment of Prior Distributions in
Bayesian Analysis, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, 776–800.
10. Phillips, L. D., Hays, W. L. and Edwards, W. (1966) Conservatism in Complex
Probabilistic Inference, IEEE Transactions in Human Factors in Electronics,
7, 7–18.
11. Marks, D. F. and Clarkson, J. K. (1972) An Explanation of Conservatism in
the Book-bag-and-poker-ship Situation, Acta Psychologica, 36, 245–260.
12. Alberoni, F. (1962) Contribution to the Study of Subjective Probability,
Journal of General Psychology, 66, 241–264.