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Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Third Edition Paul Goodwin The Management School, <strong>University</strong> of Bath George Wright Durham Business School, <strong>University</strong> of Durham
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Third Edition
Page 5 and 6: Decision Analysis for Management Ju
Page 7: To Mary and Josephine, Jamie, Jerom
Page 10 and 11: viii Contents Chapter 16 The analyt
Page 12 and 13: x Foreword real problems, and it is
Page 14 and 15: xii Preface accountancy, where rece
Page 17 and 18: 1 Introduction Complex decisions Im
Page 19 and 20: The role of decision analysis 3 you
Page 21 and 22: Applications of decision analysis 5
Page 27 and 28: Overview of the book 11 and profit.
Page 29: References 13 8. Walls, M. R., Mora
Page 32 and 33: 16 How people make decisions involv
Page 44 and 45: 28 Decisions involving multiple obj
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36 Decisions involving multiple obj
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72 Introduction to probability Beca
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74 Introduction to probability prac
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76 Introduction to probability we w
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78 Introduction to probability whet
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80 Introduction to probability give
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82 Introduction to probability prob
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84 Introduction to probability deci
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86 Introduction to probability that
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88 Introduction to probability inte
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90 Introduction to probability subj
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92 Introduction to probability (5)
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94 Introduction to probability (a)
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96 Decision making under uncertaint
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98 Decision making under uncertaint
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100 Decision making under uncertain
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6 Decision trees and influence diag
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Constructing a decision tree 145 be
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Determining the optimal policy 147
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Decision trees and utility 149 succ
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Decision trees involving continuous
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Practical applications of decision
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Summary 163 where the resulting dec
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Exercises 165 other elements of the
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Exercises 167 (b) Assuming that Wes
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Exercises 169 is not hired, given t
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Exercises 171 failing to meet the p
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Exercises 173 why it was rational f
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Exercises 175 (11) In the Eagle Mou
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References 177 ABC Chemicals are pl
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7 Applying simulation to decision p
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Monte Carlo simulation 181 Of cours
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Monte Carlo simulation 183 Table 7.
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Applying simulation to a decision p
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Applying simulation to investment d
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Summary 205 Hull 10 ), some of them
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Exercises 207 (c) Use your simulati
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Exercises 209 For each factor the f
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Exercises 211 (b) Suppose that your
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References 213 6 million Therefore
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216 Revising judgments in the light
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9 Biases in probability assessment
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Introduction 249 of people watching
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The availability heuristic 251 make
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The representativeness heuristic 25
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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Other judgmental biases 263 Other j
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Is human probability judgment reall
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Exercises 271 Did you receive timel
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References 273 have been taken from
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References 275 18. Hamilton, D. L.
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10 Methods for eliciting probabilit
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Preparing for probability assessmen
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Consistency and coherence checks 28
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessing probabilities for very ra
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Exercises 293 Odds in favor of even
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References 295 13. Wright, G. and W
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298 Risk and uncertainty management
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310 Decisions involving groups of i
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330 Resource allocation and negotia
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14 Decision framing and cognitive i
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How people frame decisions 357 Figu
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Imposing imaginary constraints and
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Inertia in strategic decision makin
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Studies in the psychological labora
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Overcoming inertia? 369 it is diffi
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Discussion questions 373 frame anal
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References 375 References 1. Luchin
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15 Scenario planning: an alternativ
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Introduction 379 documented in Chap
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Scenario construction: the extreme-
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Scenario construction: the driving
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Case study of a scenario interventi
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Table 15.1 - The components of the
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Illustrative case study 403 (b) Att
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Illustrative case study 405 Stage 4
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Illustrative case study 407 importa
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Conclusion 409 combinations. Often
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References 411 2. Van der Heijden,
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414 The analytic hierarchy process
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17 Alternative decision-support sys
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Expert systems 429 generally agreed
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Expert systems 431 that knowledge e
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Expert systems 433 (1) That the sub
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Expert systems 435 information syst
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Expert systems 437 to focus on ‘t
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Expert systems 439 On the basis of
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Is there any intention/expectation
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Expert systems 443 described above
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Expert systems 445 body of knowledg
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Statistical models of judgment 447
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Comparisons 453 ‘broken leg’ cu
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Some final words of advice 455 Ques
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Some final words of advice 457 of t
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References 459 Table 17.1 - Summary
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References 461 20. Eisenhart, J. (1
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Chapter 3 Suggested answers to sele
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Suggested answers to selected quest
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472 Index Brown, C.E. 446 Brown, S.
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474 Index HIVIEW 58 Hodgkinson, G.P
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476 Index scenario intervention cas
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