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274 Biases in probability assessment
2. Lichtenstein, S., Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., Layman, M. and Coombs, B. (1978)
Judged Frequency of Lethal Events, Journal of Experimental Psychology:
Human Learning and Memory, 4, 551–578.
3. Chapman, L. J. and Chapman, L. P. (1969) Illusory Correlation as an Obstacle
to the Use of Valid Psychodiagnostic Signs, Journal of Abnormal Psychology,
74, 271–280.
4. Eggleton, I. R. C. (1982) Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation, Journal of
Accounting Research, 20, 68–102.
5. O’Connor, M., Remus, W. and Griggs, K. (1993) Judgemental Forecasting in
Times of Change, International Journal of Forecasting, 9, 163–172.
6. Goodwin, P. and Fildes, R. (1999) Judgmental Forecasts of Time Series
Affected by Special Events: Does Providing a Statistical Forecast Improve
Accuracy?, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 37–53.
7. Plous, S. (1993) The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, McGraw-
Hill, New York.
8. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1982) Judgments of and by Representativeness,
in D. Kahneman, A. Tversky and P. Slovic, Judgment under Uncertainty:
Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
9. Quattrone, G. A., Lawrence, C. P., Warren, D. L., Souza-Silva, K., Finkel,
S. E. and Andrus, D. E. (1984) Explorations in Anchoring: The Effects of Prior
Range, Anchor Extremity and Suggestive Hints, Unpublished manuscript,
Stanford University, Stanford.
10. See, for example, Bar-Hillel, M. (1973) On the Subjective Probability of Compound
Events, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 9, 396–406.
11. Bar-Hillel, M. ibid.
12. See Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. and Phillips, L. D. (1982) Calibration of
Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980, in D. Kahneman, A. Tversky
and P. Slovic, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
13. Alpert, M. and Raiffa, H. (1982) A Progress Report on the Training of Probability
Assessors, in D. Kahneman, A. Tversky and P. Slovic, Judgment under
Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
14. Hogarth, R. M. and Makridakis, S. (1981) Forecasting and Planning: An
Evaluation, Management Science, 227, 115–138.
15. Weinstein, N. D. (1980) Unrealistic Optimism about Future Life Events,
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 806–820.
16. Arkes, H. R., Harkness, A. R. and Biber, D. (1980) Salience and the Judgment
of Contingency, Paper presented at the Midwestern Psychological
Association, St Louis, MO (36) (as cited in H. R. Arkes, and K. R. Hammond
(eds) Judgment and Decision Making (1986) Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge).
17. Smedslund, J. (1963) The Concept of Correlation in Adults, Scandinavian
Journal of Psychology, 4, 165–173.