Downloadable - About University

Introduction 249
of people watching sporting events. In the first week of August
exceptional sales of 1.2 million cans were achieved. In the absence
of other information, would you judge that it is more likely that
sales for the following week will be:
(a) higher;
(b) about the same; or
(c) lower than 1.2 million cans?
(9) Charles is 28 years old, tall, slim and powerfully built. He is popular
with his colleagues at work, who like his ready sense of humor,
and he spends his lunch times jogging in the nearby park. While
relaxing at home he prefers to wear a track suit and recently he took
out a subscription to a cable television channel devoted entirely to
sport. He takes little interest in the arts or in current affairs. Which
is more likely:
(a) Charles is a lawyer;
(b) Charles is a lawyer who regularly takes part in team sports?
(10) Which of the following scenarios is most likely to occur?
(a) A decline in the share of the global market of the US computer
manufacturing industry during the first decade of the twentyfirst
century.
(b) A decline in the share of the global market of the US computer
manufacturing industry during the first decade of the twentyfirst
century, as a result of competition from Asian countries
such as Japan, Malaysia and South Korea.
(11) The neighboring republics of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were
both formerly part of the Soviet Union. In 1990 Turkmenistan had
a population of 3.7 million. Estimate Uzbekistan’s 1990 population.
(12) An electronic safety system, which will automatically shut off
machinery in the event of an emergency, is being proposed for a factory.
It would consist of 150 independent components, each of which
must work if the entire system is to be operational. On any day, each
component would be designed to have a 99.5% probability of working.
Estimate the probability that the entire safety system would be
operational on any given day if a decision was made to install it.
(13) Currently, 10 people work in an office and each has a 5% probability
of leaving during the next year. Estimate the probability that at least
one of these people will leave within the next 12 months. (Assume
that the chance of any one person leaving is independent of whether
the others stay or leave.)
(14) For each of the 10 quantities listed below (i) write down your best
estimate of that quantity and (ii) put a lower and upper bound