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Applications of decision analysis 9
attributes associated with a project, such as benefits to the service, monetary
costs, workload involved and political pressures, to be assessed and
taken into account. However, the key benefits were seen to emanate from
the process itself. It allowed a problem which had been ‘a fermenting
source of unrest [to be] brought to the surface, openly accepted to be a
problem and shared’. As a result ‘the undercurrent of discontent’ was
replaced by ‘enthusiasm for action’.
Selecting a wide area network (WAN) solution
at EXEL Logistics 12
EXEL Logistics, a division of one of the top 100 British companies which
specializes in distribution solutions, has applied decision analysis to
a number of problems. One problem involved the selection of a wide
area network (WAN) for interconnecting around 150 sites in Britain.
Seven alternative proposals needed to be considered. The decision was
complicated by the need to involve a range of people in the decision process
(e.g. professional information systems staff, depot managers and IT
directors) and by the variety of attributes that applied to the WANs, such
as costs, flexibility, performance, safety and supplier stability. By using
decision conferencing (Chapter 12) together with SMART (Chapter 3)
the team were able to agree a choice and recommend it with confidence
to the company’s board.
Planning under a range of futures in a financial services firm
ATM Ltd (a pseudonym) provides the electromechanical machines that
dispense cash outside many of the banks and building societies in the
UK. Auto-teller machines, as they are called, are ATM’s main products.
However, several of the executives at ATM were concerned that the
use of cash might be in swift decline in the European Union, since
‘smart cards’ – cards similar to debit cards but which store electronic
cash – were being promoted by a competitor in the financial services
sector. The executives did not feel able to predict the year in which cash
transactions would cease to be significant, nor did they feel able to assess
the potential rate of decline. By using scenario planning (Chapter 15),
they felt able to identify critical driving forces which would accelerate or
decelerate the move away from cash. As a result, they felt better placed
to anticipate and cope with an unfavorable future – if such a future did
begin to unfold.