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Exercises 169
is not hired, given the position on Saturday evening. These
probabilities are shown below:
15-person team
Position on Saturday evening
Behind Not behind
schedule schedule
p(overhaul exceeds deadline
if equipment not hired) 0.6 0.2
20-person team
Position on Saturday evening
Behind Not behind
schedule schedule
p(overhaul exceeds deadline
if equipment not hired) 0.2 0.075
How many people should the manager now include in the team
and should he hire the equipment on the Saturday evening?
(6) The Bonsante Drug Company is aiming to develop a new drug
which will alleviate the symptoms of arthritis with few side effects.
The earlier the company can develop, test and market the drug, the
greater will be the returns they will earn in a market which it is
thought will be worth billions of pounds.
Two alternative technologies for developing the drug are being
considered and, given the resources available to the company,
only one of these approaches can be pursued at a given time. The
first approach is based on a substance called HMP acid and it is
estimated that there is a 0.4 probability that this approach would
lead to development of the drug in 5 years, with a 0.6 probability
that the development would take 7 years.
There is more uncertainty about the development time of the
second approach, which is based on a derivative of the chemical,
zylogen. It is estimated that the use of this chemical has a 0.3
probability of leading to completion of development in as little as
3 years. If development has not been completed in this period then
a decision would have to be made between switching to the HMP
acid technology or attempting to modify the zylogen approach. It
is thought that the modification has a 0.8 probability of leading to
completion after a further 2 years.