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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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To Mary and Josephine, Jamie, Jerom
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viii Contents Chapter 16 The analyt
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x Foreword real problems, and it is
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xii Preface accountancy, where rece
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1 Introduction Complex decisions Im
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The role of decision analysis 3 you
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Applications of decision analysis 5
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Applications of decision analysis 7
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Applications of decision analysis 9
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Overview of the book 11 and profit.
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References 13 8. Walls, M. R., Mora
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16 How people make decisions involv
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18 How people make decisions involv
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20 How people make decisions involv
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22 How people make decisions involv
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24 How people make decisions involv
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26 How people make decisions involv
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28 Decisions involving multiple obj
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30 Decisions involving multiple obj
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32 Decisions involving multiple obj
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34 Decisions involving multiple obj
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36 Decisions involving multiple obj
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38 Decisions involving multiple obj
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40 Decisions involving multiple obj
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42 Decisions involving multiple obj
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44 Decisions involving multiple obj
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46 Decisions involving multiple obj
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48 Decisions involving multiple obj
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50 Decisions involving multiple obj
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52 Decisions involving multiple obj
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54 Decisions involving multiple obj
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56 Decisions involving multiple obj
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58 Decisions involving multiple obj
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60 Decisions involving multiple obj
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62 Decisions involving multiple obj
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64 Decisions involving multiple obj
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66 Decisions involving multiple obj
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68 Decisions involving multiple obj
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70 Decisions involving multiple obj
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72 Introduction to probability Beca
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74 Introduction to probability prac
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76 Introduction to probability we w
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78 Introduction to probability whet
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80 Introduction to probability give
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82 Introduction to probability prob
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84 Introduction to probability deci
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86 Introduction to probability that
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88 Introduction to probability inte
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90 Introduction to probability subj
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- Page 112 and 113: 96 Decision making under uncertaint
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192 Applying simulation to decision
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194 Applying simulation to decision
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196 Applying simulation to decision
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198 Applying simulation to decision
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200 Applying simulation to decision
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202 Applying simulation to decision
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204 Applying simulation to decision
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206 Applying simulation to decision
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208 Applying simulation to decision
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210 Applying simulation to decision
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7 Appendix The standard deviation T
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8 Revising judgments in the light o
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Bayes’ theorem 217 1000 component
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Bayes’ theorem 219 probability th
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The effect of new information 221 E
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The effect of new information 223 P
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Assessing the value of new informat
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Assessing the value of new informat
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Assessing the value of new informat
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Assessing the value of new informat
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Assessing the value of new informat
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Practical considerations 235 inform
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Exercises 237 the reliability of th
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Exercises 239 (a) The company’s m
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Exercises 241 (8) The managers of R
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Exercises 243 bill of $6000 for any
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References 245 are favorable or unf
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248 Biases in probability assessmen
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250 Biases in probability assessmen
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252 Biases in probability assessmen
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254 Biases in probability assessmen
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256 Biases in probability assessmen
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258 Biases in probability assessmen
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260 Biases in probability assessmen
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262 Biases in probability assessmen
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264 Biases in probability assessmen
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266 Biases in probability assessmen
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268 Biases in probability assessmen
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270 Biases in probability assessmen
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272 Biases in probability assessmen
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274 Biases in probability assessmen
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276 Biases in probability assessmen
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278 Methods for eliciting probabili
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280 Methods for eliciting probabili
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282 Methods for eliciting probabili
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284 Methods for eliciting probabili
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286 Methods for eliciting probabili
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288 Methods for eliciting probabili
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290 Methods for eliciting probabili
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292 Methods for eliciting probabili
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294 Methods for eliciting probabili
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11 Risk and uncertainty management
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The Two Valleys Company 299 Fixed c
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The Two Valleys Company 301 annual
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The Two Valleys Company 303 Demand
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Summary 305 Table 11.3 - Ideas for
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Exercise 307 (a) The percentage of
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12 Decisions involving groups of in
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Aggregating judgments in general 31
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Aggregating judgments in general 31
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Aggregating preference judgments 31
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Aggregating preference judgments 31
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Aggregating preference judgments 31
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Structured group processes 321 said
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Decision conferencing 323 In contra
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Summary 325 virtually all real-worl
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References 327 Mean score Stay at B
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13 Resource allocation and negotiat
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The main stages of the analysis 331
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The main stages of the analysis 333
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The main stages of the analysis 335
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The main stages of the analysis 337
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The main stages of the analysis 339
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The main stages of the analysis 341
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The main stages of the analysis 343
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An illustrative problem 345 weekly
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An illustrative problem 347 Table 1
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Summary 349 Practical applications
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Discussion questions 351 Table 13.4
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References 353 References 1. Philli
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356 Decision framing and cognitive
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358 Decision framing and cognitive
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360 Decision framing and cognitive
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362 Decision framing and cognitive
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364 Decision framing and cognitive
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366 Decision framing and cognitive
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368 Decision framing and cognitive
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370 Decision framing and cognitive
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372 Decision framing and cognitive
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14 Appendix Figure 14.6 - Solution
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376 Decision framing and cognitive
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378 Scenario planning pressures. Th
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380 Scenario planning in, say, 10 y
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382 Scenario planning Positive Scen
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384 Scenario planning Provide high-
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386 Scenario planning ‘PLENTY FOR
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388 Scenario planning Is a Current
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390 Scenario planning But after a y
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392 Scenario planning low power hig
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394 Scenario planning Internet-faci
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396 Scenario planning collectivism
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398 Scenario planning government. E
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400 Scenario planning are determine
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402 Scenario planning against multi
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404 Scenario planning Scenario 1: (
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406 Scenario planning These scores
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408 Scenario planning Objective Wei
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410 Scenario planning process of an
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16 Introduction The analytic hierar
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Making pairwise comparisons of attr
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Obtaining weights and checking cons
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Sensitivity analysis 419 erroneous
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Strengths and criticisms of the AHP
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Exercises 423 Conclusion The AHP is
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References 425 8. Belton, V. and St
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428 Alternative decision-support sy
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430 Alternative decision-support sy
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432 Alternative decision-support sy
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434 Alternative decision-support sy
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436 Alternative decision-support sy
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438 Alternative decision-support sy
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440 Alternative decision-support sy
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442 Alternative decision-support sy
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444 Alternative decision-support sy
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446 Alternative decision-support sy
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448 Alternative decision-support sy
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450 Alternative decision-support sy
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452 Alternative decision-support sy
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454 Alternative decision-support sy
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456 Alternative decision-support sy
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458 Alternative decision-support sy
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460 Alternative decision-support sy
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462 Alternative decision-support sy
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464 Suggested answers to selected q
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466 Suggested answers to selected q
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468 Suggested answers to selected q
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Index @RISK 205 across-criteria wei
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Index 473 distinctive competencies
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Index 475 net present value (NPV) m
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Index 477 utility functions 7, 102