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xii Preface accountancy, where recent changes in syllabuses have placed greater emphasis on decision-making techniques, should also find the book useful. Almost all the chapters are followed by discussion questions or exercises, and we have included suggested answers to many of these exercises at the end of the book. Readers familiar with earlier editions of this book will note a number of changes in this new edition. Inevitably, our views of the subject and how it should be taught have also evolved over this period, while our experience of using the book has enabled us to recognize where additions or changes would enhance the reader’s understanding of the material. This edition includes a new chapter (Chapter 11) on structured risk and uncertainty management, while other chapters have been updated or expanded. The chapter on how unaided decision makers make decisions involving multiple objectives now precedes the chapter on SMART so that the rationale for employing a structured method to handle these problems is evident before readers encounter the method itself. This chapter has also been expanded to include topics like fast and frugal heuristics and reason-based choice. In addition, more material on decision framing has been added in Chapter 14, while the coverage of scenario planning (Chapter 15) and expert systems (Chapter 17) has been extended and updated. Many of the other chapters have been updated to reflect recent developments in the area and we have also included more end-of-chapter exercises. Inevitably, a large number of people provided support during the writing of the original version of this book and subsequent editions. We would particularly like to thank Larry Phillips (for his advice, encouragement and the invaluable comments he made on a draft manuscript of the first edition), Scott Barclay and Stephen Watson (for their advice during the planning of the book), Kees van der Heijden, Alan Pearman and John Maule (for their advice during the writing of the second edition) and the staff at John Wiley, including Sarah Booth, for their help, advice and encouragement during the writing of this third edition. The design of this edition has also benefited from the comments of our students and from the reports of a number of referees who reviewed our proposals.
Preface xiii Accompanying web site at www.wileyeurope.com/go/goodwin&wright/ You will find valuable additional learning and teaching material at the Decision Analysis for Management Judgment web site. Resources on the site include: (1) <strong>Downloadable</strong> Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that are designed to demonstrate the implementation of: (i) SMART (ii) Bayesian revision of prior probabilities (iii) Negotiation problems. (2) A specimen examination paper with answers. (3) Links to decision analysis resources on the Internet. In addition lecturers adopting the text are able to access: (1) Detailed answers to end-of-chapter questions. (2) Model teaching schemes for courses in decision analysis designed around the use of this textbook. (3) Specimen coursework questions with suggested answers. (4) Specimen examination papers with suggested answers. (5) <strong>Downloadable</strong> PowerPoint slides to support the teaching of material appearing in the book’s chapters. Paul Goodwin George Wright
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48 Decisions involving multiple obj
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72 Introduction to probability Beca
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74 Introduction to probability prac
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76 Introduction to probability we w
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78 Introduction to probability whet
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80 Introduction to probability give
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82 Introduction to probability prob
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84 Introduction to probability deci
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86 Introduction to probability that
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88 Introduction to probability inte
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90 Introduction to probability subj
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92 Introduction to probability (5)
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94 Introduction to probability (a)
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96 Decision making under uncertaint
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98 Decision making under uncertaint
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100 Decision making under uncertain
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6 Decision trees and influence diag
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Constructing a decision tree 145 be
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Determining the optimal policy 147
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Decision trees and utility 149 succ
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Decision trees involving continuous
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Practical applications of decision
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Summary 163 where the resulting dec
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Exercises 165 other elements of the
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Exercises 167 (b) Assuming that Wes
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Exercises 169 is not hired, given t
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Exercises 171 failing to meet the p
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Exercises 173 why it was rational f
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Exercises 175 (11) In the Eagle Mou
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References 177 ABC Chemicals are pl
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7 Applying simulation to decision p
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Monte Carlo simulation 181 Of cours
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Monte Carlo simulation 183 Table 7.
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Applying simulation to a decision p
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Applying simulation to investment d
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Summary 205 Hull 10 ), some of them
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Exercises 207 (c) Use your simulati
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Exercises 209 For each factor the f
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Exercises 211 (b) Suppose that your
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References 213 6 million Therefore
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216 Revising judgments in the light
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9 Biases in probability assessment
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Introduction 249 of people watching
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The availability heuristic 251 make
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The representativeness heuristic 25
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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Other judgmental biases 263 Other j
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Is human probability judgment reall
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Exercises 271 Did you receive timel
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References 273 have been taken from
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References 275 18. Hamilton, D. L.
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10 Methods for eliciting probabilit
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Preparing for probability assessmen
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Consistency and coherence checks 28
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessing probabilities for very ra
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Exercises 293 Odds in favor of even
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References 295 13. Wright, G. and W
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298 Risk and uncertainty management
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310 Decisions involving groups of i
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330 Resource allocation and negotia
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14 Decision framing and cognitive i
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How people frame decisions 357 Figu
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Imposing imaginary constraints and
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Inertia in strategic decision makin
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Studies in the psychological labora
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Overcoming inertia? 369 it is diffi
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Discussion questions 373 frame anal
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References 375 References 1. Luchin
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15 Scenario planning: an alternativ
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Introduction 379 documented in Chap
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Scenario construction: the extreme-
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Scenario construction: the driving
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Case study of a scenario interventi
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Table 15.1 - The components of the
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Illustrative case study 403 (b) Att
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Illustrative case study 405 Stage 4
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Illustrative case study 407 importa
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Conclusion 409 combinations. Often
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References 411 2. Van der Heijden,
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414 The analytic hierarchy process
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17 Alternative decision-support sys
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Expert systems 429 generally agreed
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Expert systems 431 that knowledge e
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Expert systems 433 (1) That the sub
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Expert systems 435 information syst
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Expert systems 437 to focus on ‘t
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Expert systems 439 On the basis of
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Is there any intention/expectation
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Expert systems 443 described above
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Expert systems 445 body of knowledg
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Statistical models of judgment 447
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Comparisons 453 ‘broken leg’ cu
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Some final words of advice 455 Ques
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Some final words of advice 457 of t
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References 459 Table 17.1 - Summary
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References 461 20. Eisenhart, J. (1
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Chapter 3 Suggested answers to sele
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Suggested answers to selected quest
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472 Index Brown, C.E. 446 Brown, S.
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474 Index HIVIEW 58 Hodgkinson, G.P
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476 Index scenario intervention cas
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