Downloadable - About University

x Foreword
real problems, and it is most useful when you get a result you did not
expect. Sleep on it, then go back and work it through again, altering
and changing your representation of the problem, or your views of it, as
necessary. After several tries, you will almost certainly have deepened
your understanding of the issues, and now feel comfortable with taking
a decision.
If you are then willing to invest some time and effort trying out the
various approaches covered in this book, the rewards should be worth it.
No mathematical skills are needed beyond an ability to use a calculator
to add, multiply and occasionally divide. But a willingness to express
your judgments in numerical form is required (even if you are not
convinced at the start), and patience in following a step-by-step process
will help.
Whether your current problem is to evaluate options when objectives
conflict, to make a choice as you face considerable uncertainty about the
future, to assess the uncertainty associated with some future event, to
decide on seeking new information before making a choice, to obtain
better information from a group of colleagues, to reallocate limited
resources for more effectiveness, or to negotiate with another party,
you will find sound, practical help in these pages. Even if you do
not overtly apply any of the procedures in this book, the perspectives
on decision making provided by decision analysis should help you to
deal with complex issues more effectively and sharpen your everyday
decision-making skills.
Lawrence D. Phillips
Department of Operational Research
London School of Economics and Political Science