Chart-Technique FX & FI - Raiffeisen Bank International AG

Chart-Technique FX & FI
June 17th, 2011
Corporate Presentation August 2010

Table of Contents
� Keynotes 3
� EUR / USD 4
� USD / JPY 5
� EUR / JPY 6
� EUR / CHF 7
� EUR Bund Future 8
� U.S.T.-Note Future 9
� EUR / CZK 10
� EUR / HUF 11
� EUR / PLN 12
� EUR / RON 13
� Appendix 14
note: the analyses included herein have been made from 09:30 to 11:32 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
2

Keynotes
Coverage
Markets
U.S.A.
Germany
CEE & Others
Highlights
� T-Note’s major resistance, i.e. 122-24, cd get crossed and after a bullish confirmation at
123-05 an advance towards 127 - 127 follow. The MAVs at 122-11 and 121-15 provide some
support. Bulishness wd be re-newed at 123-10 clearing the path towards 127.
� EUR / USD has to cross 1.4560 in order to confirm bullishness and so it wd have to do with
1.50. In the meantime it is to be rated neutral inst the range 1.42 – 1.4560.
� The Bund has a hard time at 124.65and cd fall back to about 121.50, but the next attempt
at 124.60 might already open the doors towards 124 - 16.60.
� EUR / CHF should confirm bearishness at 1.19 and hit the FSL at 1.1750 soon.
� EUR / JPY should hit its trend-channel’s FSL at 111.00 and 107.70 later – and not find enough
support at 112.80.
� USD / JPY is testing out 79 again. Bearish confirmation wd be 75 -> 67.70 – 60.
� EUR/RON: should it really cross 4.28 the following rally towards 4.43 would be minimum
expectation, i.e. it cd also make it towards 4.581, thereafter.
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
3

EUR / USD
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
1.4141
Strategie / Strategy: Sell
Kursziel / Target: 1.4065 – 1.3940
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 1.4071 � trend-low
- 1.4040 � minor support
- 1.3940 � FSL
Widerstände/ Resistances:
- 1.4225 � Tweezers‘
- 1.4310 � minor resistance
- 1.4345 � minor resistance
BEARISH
Analyse:
Keilformation und bear Flagge und der
Kurs testet die FSL bei 1,42, daher kann
1,3940 halten – oder es kommt trotz des
bullishen Keils zu einem Fall bis 1,38
und 1,36.
K 1,4235 � 1,4325 – 1,4420..
VK � 1,4065 – 1,3940…
Analysis:
Wedge-pattern and bear Flag and the
FSL at 1.42 being tested. Thus either
1.3940 holds firm – or although this per
se is a bullish Wedge it falls back
towards 1.38 and 1.36.
Buy 1.4235 � 1.4325 – 1.4420…
Sell � 1.4065 – 1.3940…
Timestamp: 09:53 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
4

USD / JPY
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
80.47
Strategie / Strategy: Sell 79.35
Kursziel / Target: 77.60 – 75.70
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 79.00 � major support
- 76.99 � Downtrust
- 75.73 � Fibo
Widerstände/ Resistances:
- 81.50 � minor resistance
- 82.25 � HighWave
- 83.20 � minor resistance
BEARISH
Analyse:
Die Langzeit-Unterstützung bei 79
könnte in Kürze fallen, wenn es zu
einem VK-Signal bei 79,35 kommt,
damit wäre ein Fall bis 67 und 60 drin.
K 82,50 � 86,60…
VK 79,35 � 77,60 – 75,70…
Analysis:
The long-term support 79 might fail to
again provide support, wd the sell-signal
at 79.35 get triggered. In the latter case
it wd give way to a decrease vs. 67 and
60.
Buy 82.50 � 86.60…
Sell 79.35 � 77.60 – 75.70…
Timestamp: 09:00 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
5

EUR / JPY
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
113.77
Strategie / Strategy: sell
Kursziel / Target: 112.80 – 111.00
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 113.40 � minor support
- 112.80 � Fibo
- 111.00 � FSL
Widerstände/ Resistances:
- 114.50 � minor resistance
- 115.20 � Rectangle
- 116.00 � Fibo
BEARISH
Analyse:
Innerhalb des Abwärtstrends und am
Tief bei 113.40, aber dennoch sollte
111 erreicht werden – und 107,70.
K 115,40 � 116,50…
VK � 112,80 – 111,00…
VK 110,00 � 107,70…
Analysis:
Within the downward trend and at the
low, i.e. 113.40, but it should hit 111
and 107.70.
Buy 115.40 � 116.50…
Sell � 122.80 – 111.00…
Sell 110.00 � 107.70…
Timestamp: 09:13 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
6

EUR / CHF
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
1.2026
Strategie / Strategy: Sell 1.1965
Kursziel / Target: 1.1860 – 1.1735
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 1.1990 � Fibo
- 1.1939 � trend-low
- 1.1865 � Fibo
Widerstände/ Resistances:-
- 1.2090 � minor resistance
- 1.2125 � minor resistance
- 1.2200 � major resistance
BEARISH
Analyse:
Der Trendkanal deutet hin auf einen Fall
bis 0,90, die bearishe Bestätigung wäre
bei 1,20 gegeben. Rebounds bis 1,22
sind nicht ausgeschlossen.
K 1,2125 � 1,2200 – 1,2250 ….
VK 1,1965 � 1,1860 – 1,1735…
Analysis:
The trend-channel lets assume a
decrease towards 0.90, bearish
confirmation wd be 1.20. Rebounds to
1.22 cannot be ruled out yet.
Buy 1.2125 � 1.2200 – 1.2250…
Sell 1.1965 � 1.1860 – 1.1735…
Timestamp: 09:25 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
7

EUR Bund Future
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
126.56
Strategie / Strategy: Buy
Kursziel / Target: 127.00 – 127.35
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 126.30 � minor support
- 126.00 � minor support
- 125.66 � MAV
Widerstände/ Resistances:
- 126.62 � trend-high
- 127.00 � Fibo
- 127.35 � Fibo
BULLISH
Analyse:
Fortsetzung des bullishen Trends nach
Ausbruch aus aktueller Konsolidierung
wahrscheinlich.
K � 127,00 – 127,35…
VK 125,20 � 124,55 …
Analysis:
Continuation of bullish trend after
breakout from current consolidation
pattern likely.
Buy � 127.00 – 127.35…
Sell 125.20 � 124.55…
Timestamp: 09:38 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
8

U.S.T.-Note Future
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 125-05 � minor support
- 124-26 � MAV
- 124-19 � minor support
125-15
Strategie / Strategy: Buy
Kursziel / Target: 126-00 – 126-25
Widerstände/ Resistances:
- 125-28 � trend-high
- 126-00 � minor resistance
- 126-25 � Fibo
BULLISH
Analyse:
Am Weg gen‘ 126-25, danach sollte
130 möglich sein.
K � 126-00 – 126-25…
VK 124-25 � 124-07…
Analysis:
On the way to 126-25, thereafter it
might hit 130.
Buy � 126-00 – 126-25…
Sell 124-25 � 124-07…
Timestamp: 10:10 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
9

EUR / CZK
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
24.21
Strategie / Strategy: Buy 24.29
Kursziel / Target: 24.33 – 24.62
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 24.04 � RSL
- 23.85 � Rectangle
- 24.14 � MAV
Widerstände / Resistances:
- 24.63 � Rectangle
- 24.80 � Top Thrust
- 24.28 � MAV
NEUTRAL
Analyse:
Nach starkem Kursrückgang innerhalb
des Rechtecks Rebound wahrscheinlich.
Kauf: 24,29 � 24,33 – 24,62
Verkauf: 24,10 � 24,02 – 23,85
Analysis:
After sharp drop within Rectangle
might rebound.
Buy: 24.29 � 24.33 – 24.62
Sell: 24.10 � 24.02 – 23.85
Timestamp: 10:32 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
10

EUR / HUF
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
268.87
Strategie / Strategy: Buy 269.56
Kursziel / Target: 271.45 – 272.30
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 266.66 � Rectangle
- 264.46 � Rectangle`s mean
- 265.65 � Fibo
Widerstände/ Resistances:
- 272.68 � Year High
- 271.45 � Fibo
- 269.54 � Fibo
BULLISH
Analyse:
Ausbruch aus Rechteck führte zu Rallye,
deren Fortbestand bei 269,54 bestätigt
wäre, daher:
Kauf: 269,56 � 271,45 – 272,30
VK: 267,67 � 266,62 – 265,65
Analysis:
Left Rectangle and might confirm further
rally at 269,54 thus:
Buy: 269.56 � 271.45. – 272.30
Sell: 267.67 � 266.62 – 265.65
Timestamp: 10:50 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
11

EUR / PLN
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
3.979
Strategie / Strategy: Buy 3.988
Kursziel / Target: 4.011 – 4.029
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 3.9018 � Rectangle`s support
- 3.9533 � MAV
- 3.9692 � Fibo
Widerstände / Resistances:
- 4.0200 � Tweezers‘
- 4.0117 � Fibo
- 3.9854 � Fibo
NEUTRAL
Analyse:
Erneute Rallye nach Konsolidierung, die
fortbestehen sollte.
Kauf: 3,988 � 4,011– 4,029
Verkauf: 3,969 � 3.942….
Analysis:
A new increase should continue after the
current consolidation.
Buy: 3.988 � 4.011 – 4.029
Sell: 3.969 � 3.942…
Timestamp: 11:13 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
12

EUR / RON
Letzter Kurs / Last Price:
4.2305
Strategie / Strategy: Buy 4.246
Kursziel / Target: 4.254 – 4.288
Unterstützungen / Supports:
- 4.2027 � Fibo
- 4.1316 � Rectangle
- 4.1576 � MAV
Widerstände/ Resistances:
- 4.2466 � Fibo
- 4.3265 � High
- 4.2520 � RRL
NEUTRAL
Analyse:
Rallye könnte nach starkem Anstieg
anhalten und konsolidieren.
Kauf: 4.246 � 4.254– 4.288
VK: 4.221 � 4.201 – 4,175
Analysis:
Rally could stop and consolidate after
sharp increase.
Buy: 4.246 � 4.254 – 4.288
Sell: 4.221 � 4.201 – 4.175
Timestamp: 11:26 CET
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
13

Glossary
Abbreviation Means Translation Interpretation
ATH All-Time-High Allzeit-Hoch crossing = confirmation
ATL All-Time-Low Allzeit-Tief crossing = confirmation
Bear. bearish downward tendency
Bounce-Back Rücksetzer temporary retracement
to former resistance-level
Bull. bullish upward tendency
Dead-Cross spez. Verkaufsignal MAVs’ sell-signal
Doji small scrap Kleinkram Candlestick-Pattern
Fibo Fibonacci Retracement/Projection major support or
resistance, target
FRL Falling-Resistance Line Abwärtstrendlinie crossing = trends’ end
FSL Falling-Support Line Abwärtstrendlinie crossing = confirmation
Gap Kurslücke support or resistance
K Kauf buy Stop-Entry Buy
MAV Moving Average Durchschnittslinie Simple Moving Average
RSL Rising-Support Line Aufwärtstrendlinie crossing = trend’s end
RRL Rising-Resistance Line Aufwärtstrendlinie crossing = confirmation
Rebound Erholung temporary movement
against trend
Rectangle Rechteck Klassische Formationslehre
Star Sternchen Candlestick-Pattern
Stop Technical Stop = not
based on Money Mgmt
Triangle Dreieck Klassische Formationslehre
Tweezers’ Tweezers’ Top or Bottom Candlestick-Pattern
VK Verkauf Sell Stop-Entry Short
Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
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Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
15

Disclaimer
All financial and non-financial information and statistical data are based both on historical data and the methods Technical Analysis as explained in
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illustrative purposes only. Source of data is Thomson Reuters, source of Technical Analysis is Raiffeisen RESEARCH.
All analyses in this report solely are based on the methods of technical analysis. Thus results might differ from those of macro- and micro-economical
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Technical Analysis by Raiffeisen RESEARCH June 17th, 2011 © Memmer / Schittler
16