April 2011 - Centre for Civil Society - University of KwaZulu-Natal
April 2011 - Centre for Civil Society - University of KwaZulu-Natal April 2011 - Centre for Civil Society - University of KwaZulu-Natal
The majority of the MPC, however, realise that when rising prices are caused by rises in world energy and food prices (amplified by the devaluation of the pound) and VAT increases, higher interest rates will not improve the situation. On the contrary, dearer credit would cut disposable incomes even more, further depressing growth. Recent price rises, especially energy and food, together with higher VAT, have already eroded real (inflation-adjusted) take-home pay by 12%. Prices, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), are rising by 3.7%, but by nearly 5%, measured by the more realistic Retail Price Index (RPI). The RPI includes housing costs and other essential items. In the last quarter average earnings grew by only 2.1%, meaning a cut in ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) terms. Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, has warned that real wages will continue to fall. “In 2011 real wages are likely to be no higher than they were in 2005. One has to go back to the 1920s to find a time when real wages fell over a period of six years.” This means a savage cut in living standards, even before the £81 billion Con-Dem cuts package takes effect. This squeeze, claims King, “is the inevitable price to pay for the financial crisis”. But why should workers pay for the reckless speculative activity of banks and the wealthy who detonated a financial implosion? While the majority face austerity, a handful of bankers will together pick up £7 billion in bonuses in 2011. In 2010, the average bonus for front-office professionals in the banking sector was £84,409 – 5% more than the year before. Striking a Thatcherite pose, Osborne proclaimed that he would not be changing course on account of “one cold month”: “We cannot afford to be blown off course by bad weather.” His side-kick, Lib Dem business secretary Vince Cable, said that “there is no need for a plan B if plan A is right and sensible, which it is”. Osborne, Cable & Co are, no doubt, hoping that the fourth quarter’s provisional figures will be revised upwards next month on the basis of more complete data. Nevertheless, many back-bench Con-Dem MPs, and reportedly some ministers, were severely shaken by the latest figures and the growing risk of a double-dip recession. Even the Murdoch-owned Times commented: “it is not hyperbole [an exaggeration] to describe that prospect as a crisis for policymaking.” The £114 billion deficit-reduction plan may well result in a higher deficit. Negative or zero growth would further reduce tax revenues and increase spending on unemployment. The financier, George Soros, commented: “I don’t think they can possibly implement it without pushing the economy into recession.” The Financial Times, the voice of big business, called on the government to draw up a ‘plan B’. It recognises that Con-Dem measures are likely to provoke another downturn, and that widespread fear of a double dip is already depressing consumer spending and business investment. “The exchequer should have a plan B for public finances: a self-fulfilling pessimism is avoidable if people know austerity will be delayed should things go worse than hoped.”
What would plan B be? Both the capitalist critics of the Con-Dem policy of ‘cut and hope’ and the pro-big business New Labour leaders favour spreading the pain of deficit reduction over a longer period. But this would not resolve the deep-rooted problems of capitalism. The message for the working class is that the government can be forced to retreat on cuts by a determined, mass struggle. But merely postponing cuts is not enough. The anti-cuts fight must be linked to a struggle to take over the economy and run it on democratic, socialist lines. www.socialistworld.net The South African government’s ‘talk left walk right’ climate policy Patrick Bond 2 February 2011 It’s worth downloading a copy of South Africa’s new National Climate Change Response Green Paper (http://www.climateresponse.co.za) to prepare for the local deluge of technical and political debate that Durban will host in exactly eight months’ time. As the Kyoto Protocol’s Conference of the Parties (also known as the Durban ‘COP 17’) draws closer, we will encounter even more frequent public relations blasts than witnessed in the same International Convention Centre district a decade ago, before the World Conference Against Racism in 2001, and again last year during the soccer World Cup. The Pretoria government’s greenwashing challenges this year include distracting its citizens from concern about: • More imminent multi-billion dollar financing decisions on Eskom coalfired mega power plants (with more price increases for the masses). • The conclusion of the energy ministry’s multi-decade resource planning exercise, which is run by a committee dominated by electricity-guzzling corporations; and Pretoria’s contributions to four global climate debates • President Jacob Zuma’s cochairing of a UN sustainable development commission, Planning Minister Trevor Manuel’s role within the UN Advisory Group on Climate Finance seeking $100 bn/year in North-South flows, the G8-G20 meetings in France, and the COP 17 preparatory committee meetings. Many recall from World Summit on Sustainable Development prep-coms how pressure rose on negotiators to be as unambitious and nonbinding as possible. At that 2002 Johannesburg summit, climate change was completely ignored and the main host politicians – President Thabo Mbeki, Foreign Minister Nkosozana Dlamini-Zuma and Environment Minister Valli Moosa – were criticized for, as Martin Khor (now head of the South Centre) put it, “the utter lack of transparency and procedure of the political declaration process. Some delegates, familiar with the World Trade Organisation (WTO), remarked in frustration that the infamous WTO Green Room process had now crossed over to the usually open and participatory UN system.” Later this year, their successors Zuma, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane and Edna Molewa will also surrender democratic principles and let secretive Green Room deal-making sites proliferate. Two authors of the Green Paper are environment officials Joanne Yawitch
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What would plan B be? Both the capitalist critics <strong>of</strong> the Con-Dem policy <strong>of</strong><br />
‘cut and hope’ and the pro-big business New Labour leaders favour<br />
spreading the pain <strong>of</strong> deficit reduction over a longer period. But this would<br />
not resolve the deep-rooted problems <strong>of</strong> capitalism.<br />
The message <strong>for</strong> the working class is that the government can be <strong>for</strong>ced to<br />
retreat on cuts by a determined, mass struggle. But merely postponing<br />
cuts is not enough. The anti-cuts fight must be linked to a struggle to take<br />
over the economy and run it on democratic, socialist lines.<br />
www.socialistworld.net<br />
The South African government’s ‘talk left walk right’ climate policy<br />
Patrick Bond 2 February <strong>2011</strong><br />
It’s worth downloading a copy <strong>of</strong> South Africa’s new National Climate<br />
Change Response Green Paper (http://www.climateresponse.co.za) to<br />
prepare <strong>for</strong> the local deluge <strong>of</strong> technical and political debate that Durban<br />
will host in exactly eight months’ time.<br />
As the Kyoto Protocol’s Conference <strong>of</strong> the Parties (also known as the<br />
Durban ‘COP 17’) draws closer, we will encounter even more frequent<br />
public relations blasts than witnessed in the same International Convention<br />
<strong>Centre</strong> district a decade ago, be<strong>for</strong>e the World Conference Against Racism<br />
in 2001, and again last year during the soccer World Cup.<br />
The Pretoria government’s greenwashing challenges this year include<br />
distracting its citizens from concern about:<br />
• More imminent multi-billion dollar financing decisions on Eskom coalfired<br />
mega power plants (with more price increases <strong>for</strong> the masses).<br />
• The conclusion <strong>of</strong> the energy ministry’s multi-decade resource planning<br />
exercise, which is run by a committee dominated by electricity-guzzling<br />
corporations; and Pretoria’s contributions to four global climate debates<br />
• President Jacob Zuma’s cochairing <strong>of</strong> a UN sustainable development<br />
commission, Planning Minister Trevor Manuel’s role within the UN Advisory<br />
Group on Climate Finance seeking $100 bn/year in North-South flows, the<br />
G8-G20 meetings in France, and the COP 17 preparatory committee<br />
meetings.<br />
Many recall from World Summit on Sustainable Development prep-coms<br />
how pressure rose on negotiators to be as unambitious and nonbinding as<br />
possible. At that 2002 Johannesburg summit, climate change was<br />
completely ignored and the main host politicians – President Thabo Mbeki,<br />
Foreign Minister Nkosozana Dlamini-Zuma and Environment Minister Valli<br />
Moosa – were criticized <strong>for</strong>, as Martin Khor (now head <strong>of</strong> the South <strong>Centre</strong>)<br />
put it, “the utter lack <strong>of</strong> transparency and procedure <strong>of</strong> the political<br />
declaration process. Some delegates, familiar with the World Trade<br />
Organisation (WTO), remarked in frustration that the infamous WTO Green<br />
Room process had now crossed over to the usually open and participatory<br />
UN system.”<br />
Later this year, their successors Zuma, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane and Edna<br />
Molewa will also surrender democratic principles and let secretive Green<br />
Room deal-making sites proliferate.<br />
Two authors <strong>of</strong> the Green Paper are environment <strong>of</strong>ficials Joanne Yawitch