April 2011 - Centre for Civil Society - University of KwaZulu-Natal
April 2011 - Centre for Civil Society - University of KwaZulu-Natal April 2011 - Centre for Civil Society - University of KwaZulu-Natal
Maybe the US ruling class can console itself with the results for France which reveal that only 6% of the French population “strongly” supports the free market. This is a further fall from the already low 8% back in 2002. If one adds those who “somewhat agree” with the idea that capitalism is a superior system the overall figure rises to 30%, but this is still a sharp fall from the 42% figure in 2002. If we add to these figures Sarkozy’s popularity ratings which reveal that only 29% of the population are happy with his performance – his worst approval rating since he came to office in 2007 – then we can see that French capitalism is also in deep trouble. Most of Europe presents a similar picture. And even such an economic powerhouse as Japan reveals falling confidence in the capitalist system, where 50% either “strongly” or “somewhat” disagree with the idea that the market economy is the best system. Not surprisingly, the poll also reveals that those countries where a significant majority of the population believes capitalism is working is in those countries that are presently booming, such as China, Brazil and Germany. What will happen when these economies slow down is not indicated in the polls. We can confidently predict that people’s opinions will sharply change in these countries also, as they have done in the USA and most of Europe. The poll quoted in The Economist was carried out by GlobeScan. Its Chairman Doug Miller showed some surprise at the results when he said that: “America is the last place we would have expected to see such a sharp drop in trust in the free enterprise system. This is not good news for business.” He added that, “The poll suggests that American business is close to losing its social contract with average American families that has enabled it to prosper in the world. Inspired leadership will be needed to reverse this trend.” This sharp turn in opinions in the biggest and most powerful country in the world bodes well for the class struggle in the coming period. Gone are the days when the USA was the country of the “American Dream” where everyone was supposed to be able to become successful through hard work and effort. Reality has come home to the United States and no amount of “inspired leadership” will solve this dilemma for the US bourgeoisie. Of course, we can think of another kind of “inspired leadership” that could make a difference, a genuine socialist leadership of the US labour movement capable of mobilising the immense power of the US workers. That is something we are working on! www.marxist.com South Africa Hits the Green Wall: The Conference of Polluters Patrick Bond 19 April 2011 Hosting the Durban COP17 – let’s rename it the ‘Conference of Polluters’ – starting in late November puts quite a burden on the African National Congress government in Pretoria: to pretend to be pro-green. Embarrassingly, last week’s US Export-Import Bank loan of $805 million to South Africa will feed huge profits to the notorious US corporation Black & Veatch so that a vast coal-fired power plant, ‘Kusile’, can be constructed, mainly on behalf of smelters run by BHP Billiton and Anglo American Corporation – whose profits soar away to Melbourne and London.
But poor people are facing an electricity price increase of more than 125% in coming years, according to the power company Eskom. Of its four million customers, already a million are disconnected. Multiply the cut-off figure many times more when municipalities are considered. According to Physicians for Social Responsibility’s environmental health director Kristen Welker-Hood, Kusile’s costs to both the power plant’s neighbors and climate change victims elsewhere include “harming human health and compounding many of the major public health problems.” Moreover, mass disconnections of South Africans mean that electricity’s many potential health benefits will be denied low-income people, and will cause a biased version of economic development, a lower standard of living, and lower life expectancy. This is abundantly evident at a time South Africa is starving for industrialization not distorted by the ‘Minerals-Energy Complex’ (MEC), as it is termed by London School of Oriental and African Studies economist Ben Fine. The MEC’s nexus of mining and metals corporations plus the chaotic behemoth Eskom causes a ‘Resource Curse’ in South Africa, partly related to macroeconomic imbalances and partly to the country’s extreme fossil fuel dependency. The global economic crisis is still hitting hard, forcing the local currency (the Rand, ‘R’) higher – as investors flee the North’s low-interest regimes – but with more volatility. After sinking to nearly R14/$1 in 2001, the Rand rose to above R6/$1, then fell again to nearly R12/$1 in 2008, but the April 2011 rate is R6.7/$1. The high currency is double-trouble for local manufacturers not only under pressure from cheap importers, but whose longer-term capital goods orders also become vulnerable when the rand crashes by 15-30% in a matter of days, as has happened five times since liberation: 1996, 1998, 2001, 2006 and 2008. Can SA industry insulate itself from globalization’s financial cancer? More than any of his peers, past or present, Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies understands the macro-beggars-micro dilemma. But the question is whether SA’s ‘New Growth Path’ will give Davies the policy space for a coherent industrial strategy. Up until now, Davies’ post-apartheid predecessors (Trevor Manuel, Alec Erwin and Mandisi Mphalwa) merely offered stop-gap favours to special interests and failed sectoral subsidies, along with grandiose ‘Spatial Development Initiative’ projects – such as the notorious Coega complex near Port Elizabeth – which now resemble white elephants as big and hollow as those ten newly-built or refurbished World Cup 2010 soccer stadia. The latest iteration of Davies ‘Industrial Policy Action Plan 2’ (IPAP2) offers a great deal of tree-level detail which, through no fault of Davies, ignores the raging forest fire. When I debated him on national radio last week, Davies still lacked answers to either green or macroeconomic critiques. To his credit, in early 2010 when introducing IPAP2 to parliament, Davies conceded that the crisis is exceptionally deep, for reasons related to macroeconomic mismanagement: “SA’s recent growth was driven to too great an extent by unsustainable growth in consumption, fuelled by credit extension. Between 1994 and 2008 consumption driven sectors grew by 7.7% annually, compared with the productive sectors of the economy
- Page 1 and 2: Britain’s royal wedding: Not much
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But poor people are facing an electricity price increase <strong>of</strong> more than 125%<br />
in coming years, according to the power company Eskom. Of its four<br />
million customers, already a million are disconnected. Multiply the cut-<strong>of</strong>f<br />
figure many times more when municipalities are considered.<br />
According to Physicians <strong>for</strong> Social Responsibility’s environmental health<br />
director Kristen Welker-Hood, Kusile’s costs to both the power plant’s<br />
neighbors and climate change victims elsewhere include “harming human<br />
health and compounding many <strong>of</strong> the major public health problems.”<br />
Moreover, mass disconnections <strong>of</strong> South Africans mean that electricity’s<br />
many potential health benefits will be denied low-income people, and will<br />
cause a biased version <strong>of</strong> economic development, a lower standard <strong>of</strong><br />
living, and lower life expectancy.<br />
This is abundantly evident at a time South Africa is starving <strong>for</strong><br />
industrialization not distorted by the ‘Minerals-Energy Complex’ (MEC), as<br />
it is termed by London School <strong>of</strong> Oriental and African Studies economist<br />
Ben Fine. The MEC’s nexus <strong>of</strong> mining and metals corporations plus the<br />
chaotic behemoth Eskom causes a ‘Resource Curse’ in South Africa, partly<br />
related to macroeconomic imbalances and partly to the country’s extreme<br />
fossil fuel dependency.<br />
The global economic crisis is still hitting hard, <strong>for</strong>cing the local currency<br />
(the Rand, ‘R’) higher – as investors flee the North’s low-interest regimes –<br />
but with more volatility. After sinking to nearly R14/$1 in 2001, the Rand<br />
rose to above R6/$1, then fell again to nearly R12/$1 in 2008, but the<br />
<strong>April</strong> <strong>2011</strong> rate is R6.7/$1.<br />
The high currency is double-trouble <strong>for</strong> local manufacturers not only under<br />
pressure from cheap importers, but whose longer-term capital goods<br />
orders also become vulnerable when the rand crashes by 15-30% in a<br />
matter <strong>of</strong> days, as has happened five times since liberation: 1996, 1998,<br />
2001, 2006 and 2008.<br />
Can SA industry insulate itself from globalization’s financial cancer? More<br />
than any <strong>of</strong> his peers, past or present, Trade and Industry Minister Rob<br />
Davies understands the macro-beggars-micro dilemma. But the question is<br />
whether SA’s ‘New Growth Path’ will give Davies the policy space <strong>for</strong> a<br />
coherent industrial strategy.<br />
Up until now, Davies’ post-apartheid predecessors (Trevor Manuel, Alec<br />
Erwin and Mandisi Mphalwa) merely <strong>of</strong>fered stop-gap favours to special<br />
interests and failed sectoral subsidies, along with grandiose ‘Spatial<br />
Development Initiative’ projects – such as the notorious Coega complex<br />
near Port Elizabeth – which now resemble white elephants as big and<br />
hollow as those ten newly-built or refurbished World Cup 2010 soccer<br />
stadia.<br />
The latest iteration <strong>of</strong> Davies ‘Industrial Policy Action Plan 2’ (IPAP2)<br />
<strong>of</strong>fers a great deal <strong>of</strong> tree-level detail which, through no fault <strong>of</strong> Davies,<br />
ignores the raging <strong>for</strong>est fire. When I debated him on national radio last<br />
week, Davies still lacked answers to either green or macroeconomic<br />
critiques.<br />
To his credit, in early 2010 when introducing IPAP2 to parliament, Davies<br />
conceded that the crisis is exceptionally deep, <strong>for</strong> reasons related to<br />
macroeconomic mismanagement: “SA’s recent growth was driven to too<br />
great an extent by unsustainable growth in consumption, fuelled by credit<br />
extension. Between 1994 and 2008 consumption driven sectors grew by<br />
7.7% annually, compared with the productive sectors <strong>of</strong> the economy