Proceedings - Teaching and Learning Centre - Simon Fraser ...

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Fraser River Action Plan 3rd Research Workshop 1 - - - I 1 E sig. (PcO.05) Cl n.s. 1 ‘ 1 f I 1 I I 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Correlation (r2) Figure 3: Correlation of environmental variables with biological groups. Prediction of the sites to each of the groups based on these five environmental variables ranged from 52.9% to 100% with an overall prediction accuracy of 74.4%. Several test sites with suspected anthropogenic impacts were tested with the predictive model with the following results: � One test site on the Willow River having suspected impact from logging was found to lie on the 70% probability ellipse for the reference community type to which it should belong based on the environmental variables for that site. This result suggested that minimal impact was occurring at this site; and, � Four test sites on the Salmon River (Sal01 - upstream of agricultural impact; Sa102, Sa103, and Sal04 - downstream of agricultural impact) showed the unimpacted site (SalOl) to lie within the ellipse of the reference community type. The three potentially impacted sites were found to lie well outside the 70% probability ellipse which demonstrated impact at these sites (Figure 4). It must be stressed that these results are preliminary and that the development of the definitive predictive model must wait until all results are in at the end of the three-year programme. Page 239
Fraser River Action Plan 3rd Research Workshop Deliverables a) Willow R. 2g b) Salmon R. Figure 4: Reference and test sites on ordination plots with 70% ellipses. The primary deliverable for this project is the development of a software package, for use by managers, which will provide two options as follows: The software package will allow a site assessment. In this mode, the operator will have collected information on site attributes (e.g., location, depth, substrate, alkalinity, etc.) together with data on the biological community (either macroinvertebrate or algal or both). These data will be entered into the software package, the program will predict the biological community which should be present and provide output on the degree of difference from the ‘real’ community, the degree of impairment and some indication of causation. The primary focus of this study is the establishment of the reference condition for the basin which allows biological objectives to be developed. Although the data are being collected from the Fraser River basin, the baseline dataset will probably be applicable to other areas of the province with similar geographic and ecological attributes. There will be a need for a testing period where the model is used by practitioners in order for it to gain acceptance. A second operational mode could allow some “what if’ scenarios. This would allow entry of potentially changed states (i.e., logging, mining, remediation, etc.), and predictions of what changes to the biological community could occur under the various scenarios. It should be noted, however, that developing this option may require additional data collection at sites along impairment gradients (logging, mining, agriculture). Page 240 saAO3 sa102
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PROCEEDINGS 3rd RESEARCH WORKSHOP F
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Participants ....
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Development of a Citizen’s Monito
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Fraser River Action Plan 3rd Resear
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SESSION 1 PULP MILL EFFLUENT ISSUES
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SESSION 4 AGRICULTURAL ISSUES
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Fraser River Action Plan Concluding
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