Master Plan Summary - Aerodrom Ljubljana

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23
PAX Total PAX Arrival PAX Departure MOV Total MOV Arrival
MOV Departure
Illustration 9: Passenger traffic design day profile LJU 2008
Source: HTA, Symbios
Illustration 10: Aircraft movements design day LJU 2008
Source: HTA, Symbios
Peak Indicator Forecasts
The following table summarizes the annual forecast figures and detailed results of the design
day schedules up to 2030 for the typical peak day in August. Please note that for the year
2040 a high level outlook was prepared by extrapolation only for required peak hour figures.
Traffic Forecast Scenarios
Based on the base trend forecast, two different development scenarios were considered,
taking into account different development options at Ljubljana Airport.
The “high case” scenario considers the current underdeveloped low cost sector at LJU
and therefore calculated the expected effects of a generally stronger growth of the
low cost segment at LJU. As a result of a stronger growth of low cost operations the
average airfares will be reduced and the air travel demand is assumed to strongly
increase to nearly 4.8 million passengers; the movements are estimated to grow to
91,000 movements in 2040.
In the “low case” scenario the possibility of a serious crisis and drop of traffic was considered
with its expected effects on the traffic development at LJU. Ljubljana Airport is assumed to
lose more than 400,000 passengers (-10.0%) compared to the base trend forecast in 2040
and is estimated to reach 3.7 million passengers in 2040. New carriers will only take over
the profitable routes and may not establish a hub in LJU but rather focus on point-to-point
traffic. Ceased connections to minor airports – mainly in former Yugoslavian countries – will
be outweighed by higher frequencies and increasing capacities on major European routes
as well as LCCs entering the Slovenian market, taking advantage of the sudden vacuum in
the market. The stronger growth on feeding routes, LCC city routes and touristic routes will
also balance parts of the loss.
20 21