MEMORANDUM FOR A1 - Air Force E-Publishing

144 AFI91-202 5 AUGUST 2011
Attachment 15
PREPARATION OF RISK ASSESSMENTS
A15.1. Risk Assessment. A risk assessment succinctly documents the results of several steps in
the risk management process and supports follow-on decision-making processes (Reference AFI
90-901, Operational Risk Management; and AFPAM 90-902, Operational Risk Management
Guidelines and Tools). Decision options typically involve determining whether one or more
particular courses of action should be pursued (e.g., implementing equipment improvements,
safety or warning device improvements, operational improvements, technical improvements,
policy improvements, etc.), or whether a risk should be accepted. A risk assessment supports
decision-making processes by objectively identifying a hazard, assessing its risk, thoroughly
analyzing potential options for risk mitigation and making a recommendation. NOTE: The term
―losses‖ also include fatalities, not just system losses. A suggested risk assessment format is
shown in A15.1 below:
A15.1. Sample Risk Assessment Layout
Risk Assessment Title
Background: Broadly describe the situation being evaluated. Provide enough detail so the
remainder of the risk assessment can be easily understood.
Hazard Identification: Hazards are defined as any real or potential condition that can cause
mission degradation, illness or injury to personnel or damage to or loss of equipment or property.
Accurately and succinctly describe the hazard (e.g., deficiency with engineering design, material,
quality, software, operations, maintenance, etc.) being analyzed.
Initial Risk: Risk is the probability and severity of loss from exposure to the hazard. Risk
assessment is the application of qualitative and quantitative measures to determine the level of
risk associated with the identified hazard. Identify the probability and severity of a mishap that
could result from the hazard based upon the exposure of personnel or assets to the identified
hazard. Use the baseline or ―as designed‖ state as the basis for determining initial risk. Fully
explain the methodology used, data considered (e.g., reported mishaps/events, deficiency reports,
test results, etc) and rationale for determining baseline risk.
Interim Risk: Many times initial mitigation steps have already been taken prior to the
completion of a written risk assessment. These steps may include permanent risk mitigation
measures or temporary stop-gap risk mitigation measures. Describe these measures and explain
how the baseline risk is being mitigated, their effectiveness and the resulting interim risk until
final risk mitigating options can be implemented.
Risk Mitigation Options – It is likely several options still exist to mitigate the risk of the
indentified hazard. Effective control measures reduce or eliminate one of the three components
(i.e., probability, severity or exposure) of risk. Investigate specific strategies and tools that
reduce, mitigate or eliminate risk. Address each risk mitigation option separately. One option to
always consider is ―taking no further action‖ which is the equivalent of accepting the baseline