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On the other hand, two items that could increase costs significantly and must
be watched very closely are planting costs and weed control. Currently, chickpeas
are planted in February or March which are slack times in the agricultural
labor calendar and consequently labor is relatively inexpensive. If we recommend
that chickpeas be planted in November or early December this activity will
compete with the land preparation of wheat, barley, lentils and vetch. At current
wage rates in Syria, wages in November are 60% higher than wages in February.
Thus, we have identified one potential bottleneck in the diffusion of this new
technology.
Secondly, the current planting date and method ol land preparation require
little weed control. Some farmers indicated that they do some handweeding later
in the spring, but do not use herbicides. ICARDA off-site experimentation has
shown that weed control will need to accompany winter planting or weed competition
will greatly reduce yields. Therefore, we need to develop effective weed
control and determine its cost. Also we must assure that farmers realize that
weed control will be required if the planting date is advanced.
Personally, I am optimistic and feel that the yield increases from new cultivars
planted in November are significant enough to pay for the increased costs and
yet produce attractive increases in net benefits.
There remains a very important matter outside of the immediate concern of
production scientists which deserves mention here. Chickpea isa relatively minor
crop in the ICARDA region when compared with wheat, for example. An
increase in area allocated to chickpea production could greatly increase the total
production and the supply of the crop in a country, or even in the region. Since
chickpeas are a relatively minor input into the diets of people in the region, it is
most probable that the demand for chickpeas by consumers in the region is
inelastic, i.e., changes in consumption patterns will not be affected very much by
changes in prices. These two characteristics of the chickpea market could result
in rather drastic reductions in market prices if total production gains are forthcoming.
This price decrease could "wipe out" the advantages of increased productivity
for an individual farmer.
ICARDA is aware of this problem and is actively engaged in a study that is
looking at supply and demand relationships and price determination of food
legumes in the region. This is an important macro-economic issue that concerns
government policy with respect to price setting, imports and exports and other
forms of market intervention. If this situation can be foreseen, then negative
effects can be forestalled and possibly alleviated altogether.
This conference is primarily technical in focus and I appreciate the opportunity
to stress socioeconomic issues that affect and are affected by the potential for
large increases in chickpea production in the Middle East. It is appropriate to
include these issues in such a conference since it is the people who will be
affected by research - people whose livelihoods we aim to improve. Winter