HANSA 04-2024

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MÄRKTE | MARKETS Iron ore surge lifts dry market The bulk carrier spot market had a very strong start to the year, with a global economic recovery spurring expectations. By Michael Hollmann Bulk carrier owners have enjoyed one of the best opening quarters in recent years, particularly for the largest vessels, thanks to unusually strong demand for capacity from iron ore traders. Although the level of time charter earnings is making shipowners a bit jittery, improving fundamentals in the world economy could keep the market elevated for the rest of the year, according to analysts. Average time charter trip earnings so far this year are up around 150 % for 180,000 dwt capesize vessels (ytd 24,110 $/day) and circa 20–30 % for panamaxes (15,200 $), supramaxes (12,754 $) and handysize bulkers (11,783 $) when compared to the first quarter of 2023. Against the five-year average, the picture is more in line with the trend, except for capes which are still up more than 100 %. The main differentiator on the cargo side this year is much-increased demand for tonnage for iron ore ex Brazil. The El Nino phenomenon and consequent delay in the start of the rainy season allowed mining companies to maintain production levels at abnormally high levels and flood the global market like never before during this period. Researchers at London shipbroker Arrow puts the extra volume so far this year at 24 mill. t or 150 additional capesize trips. According to Maritime Strategies International (MSI), the increment in iron ore from Brazil absorbed 2.5 % of the entire capesize fleet in the past months. However, wild price swings in the price of iron ore and a rapid build-up in stocks held in Chinese ports recently have put many owners on alert. Can the flow of product into China – the powerhouse of dry bulk demand – really be maintained or is it about to fall off a cliff, dragging charter rates for bulkers to the bottom? Chinese inventory grows Official data from China suggests that iron ore inventory in the country’s ports – ready to be called upon by steel mills – grew by around 20 % to more than 135 mill. t over the past few months. The worry is that demand from steel manufacturers in China cannot keep up because of lack of demand from the ailing real estate sector which remains in the doldrums despite all pledges of support from Beijing. Home construction has been a key market for Chinese steel producers for many years. Analysts at Arrow Shipping argue, though, that the spectre of »ballooning iron ore stocks« haunting shipowners is only a mirage. Yes, the rise in port stocks has perhaps been steeper than in former years. But overall levels, they say, are only moderately higher than this time last year. Measured in days of consumption in the steel sector, port stocks right now are well within the average long-term range at around 35 days and even lower than they were back in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022. In a broader perspective, taking other storage locations into account, inventory levels are even lower as on-site iron ore stockpiles at Chinese steel mills are at a 4-year low, according to Arrow. The demand side Looking at the demand side, fresh economic indicators from China have served to allay concerns about the strength of its steel sector and overall iron ore demand. Although the property and retail sectors of its economy continue to struggle, industry and manufacturing are showing a rather robust performance with production and exports growing by more than 7 % in the first two months. Steel output in China VIEWPOINT »Ships still fully booked« Space continues to be very tight in the car carrier and RoRo market, with shippers eagerly awaiting the pending surge in newbuilding deliveries. Patrick Mantai, a general manager at shipping agency Transport Overseas Group, expects another strong year for carriers. How is business in the RoRo sector going right now? Patrick Mantai: We are very busy operating our upcoming vessel, the »Bahri Hofuf«, for the Bahri Asia/Middle East/ Europe service at Antwerp and Bremerhaven. In particular, bookings to Jeddah remain on a high level and our sailings continue to be fully booked 1–2 weeks prior sailing. We see plenty of rolling high & heavy cargoes and a good amount of static project/breakbulk goods, especially infrastructure-related and the first shipments for the upcoming NEOM project. The service offers our customers a competitive advantage these days as our vessels continue to transit the Red Sea, thus taking two weeks less for the complete voyage to Asia. Bahri still plans to beef up the service with the introduction of two more vessels – one ConRo unit and one tweendecker – later this year. Generally, capacity remains very tight in the RoRo sector, albeit to varying degrees in different trades. There is still a severe lack of space for shipments to Patrick Mantai General Manager, Transport Overseas Group Australia/New Zealand and also to North America. As a result, we recently © Transport Overseas Group 10 HANSA – International Maritime Journal 04 | 2024
900 650 400 21.09.23 ConTex 21.03.24 March '23 14,907 $ TMI – Toepfer's Multipurpose Index March '24 12,027 $
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