HANSA 02-2019

Orders & Sales
New Orders Container
Only three orders were
placed during the last weeks.
Evergreen ordered four
2,500 TEUs at Jiangnan, the
first ever newbuilding contract
placed in mainland China
(in total 130 mill. $). The
new German-Chinese shipping
company Gerchicon ordered
up to nine 2,300 TEU
unis (three firm, six options)
at Zhoushan Changhong. In
addition, US-based Dole ordered
two plus two optional
2,500 TEU vessels at Chengxi.
Secondhand Sales Container
JR Shipping acquired the
1,436 TEU Chinese ice-class
feeder (2011-built) »Alsterdijk«,
»Aalderdijk«, »Akerdijk«
and »Amerdijk« for 37 mill. $.
»Cafer Dede« and »Ibrahim
Dede« were acquired by Capital
Maritime for 9 mill.$ each.
In general, market activity
stays on a low level, as sellers
are not receiving the bits they
would sell for.
Demolition Sales
The world market price for
iron ore oscillates around
74.5 $/t. After a setback during
November, prices were
able to recover. Expectations
of a boost in demand for the
steel-making raw material
from Beijing`s moves to
stimulate the slowing Chinese
economy could be a reason
for that. Recycling activity
remains at a similar level
as in the last reporting period,
with demolition prices oscillating
around $450 $/ldt. The
highest price was achieved by
the 5,018 TEU »CSL Virginia«,
which was sold to Bangladesh
at 488 $/ldt. After a
collision last year with RoRo
ship »Ulysse«, the Greek owners
decided to offload it.
Jan Göldner
also trended weaker towards the end of
the year. According to shipbroker Simpson
Spence Young (SSY), the result was
that the fourth quarter of 2018 saw the
largest quater-on-quarter drop on record
(in absolute terms) in China’s combined
imports of iron ore, coal and grains.
The result was a fall in fleet utilisation
and bulk carrier earnings that seems to be
reaching its climax now. The question is
how long it will take trade growth to gain
traction again and to what extent China
inbound trades will continue to expand.
Although steel production continues to
rise following a 6.6% increase in China
last year and although miners – especially
in Brazil – bring on more capacity to serve
Chinese customers, there are signs of saturation.
Clarksons Research forecasts no
more than 0.4% growth in Chinese iron
ore imports this year. Coal volumes are
even expected to fall by 2.0% due to curtailments
and the »greening« of China’s
energy sector.
Demand for soyabeans in China may
also remain muted due to weaker demand
for animal feed after the nationwide outbreak
of African swine fever, SSY warned.
As a result, sentiment in dry bulk shipping
has taken a hit as illustrated by the sharp
deterioration in freight futures prices. The
time charter average for capesize vessels
was trading at only 13,000-14,000 $/day
for the first and second quarters at the end
of January while those for panamaxes, supramaxes
and handysize bulkers were all
hovering below 10,000 $/day.
Positive expectations right now are
more or less limited to trades served by
those smaller vessels. SSY highlights expected
increases in coal demand in India
and rising grain imports in southeast
Asia in its latest monthly review.
Meanwhile, the shortsea bulk trades in
Europe commenced the year in a muted
fashion, too, with a backlog of spot tonnage
weighing down on freights. The European
Short Sea Index of market research
firm BMTI was down by around
2.0% month-on-month on 23 January.
While freight levels in North Europe were
relatively stable, the Mediterranean and
Black Sea/Azov region showed falls of 3.0-
5.0% month-on-month.
COMPASS
Container ship t / c market
Container freight market
Märkte | Markets
Month on Month 390 - 4.4 %
WCI Shanghai-Rotterdam 1,943 $/FEU + 9.5 %
WCI Shanghai-Los Angeles 2,194 $/FEU + 17.0 %
Average rates spot / up to 4 weeks validity
WCI = World Container Index, supplier: Drewry
Dry cargo / Bulk
Dwindling OPEC output
The rally in crude tanker spot earnings
that started back in autumn also lost
steam in January as peak season demand
seemed to begin to fade while the OPEC
production curb saw spot cargoes dwindle
Baltic Dry Index
Spot time charter averages ($/day)
Capesize 5TC average
Panamax 4TC average
Supramax 6TC average
Handysize 6TC average
939
13,373
6,671
6,784
5,936
- 26.1 %
- 13.0 %
- 40.0 %
- 39.0 %
- 30.0 %
in the Middle East Gulf. As per 25 Jan-
Forward / ffa front month Feb´19 ($/day)
uary, time charter equivalents for VLCC
and for aframaxes in the spot market
Capesize 180k 11,683 - 28.2 %
were down by 32% and 31%, respectively,
month-on-month. Suezmaxes even suffered
a 48% drop.
Currently, brokers consider the market
as fairly positional, with some pockets of
strength (US Gulf and Caribs for VLCC
and aframaxes) bucking the downward
Panamax
MPP
7,300 - 34.1 %
January ’19
$ 7,593
trend. General expectations for the
TMI
crude tanker spot market are still positive
Toepfer’s Multipurpose Index
based on 2-3% fleet growth vesus 3-4%
trade growth this year. However, analysts
January ’18
$ 6,678
such as Fearnley Securities now say that
they don’t expect the »next supercycle« in
The index is based on a 12,500 tdw MPP/HL »F-Type« vessel
tanker earnings to kick in until the second
half of the year.
from operators, owners and brokers.
for a 6-12 months TC and represents the monthly assessment
Sentiment in the container ship market
was put to the test once more as charter
rates for all vessel types from panamax
down to feeder type resumed their
downward trajectory. Fixing activity was
not too bad which – combined with the
Tankers
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
Baltic Clean Tanker Index
shortsea / Coaster
866
668
- 31.1 %
- 18.8 %
reactivation of liner-controlled vessels –
Norbroker 3,500 dwt earnings est. 2,800 €/d - 2.0 %
caused the idle container ship fleet to fall
HC Shortsea Index 18.46 + 1.3 %
to around 560,000 TEU (2.5% of worldwide
fleet). It was not enough, though, to
ISTFIX Shortsea Index 647 - 8.5 %
halt the pressure on rates. The few segments
that were bucking the trend were
tracking spot freights on 5 intra-European routes; Istfix
Norbroker: spot t/c equivalent assessment basis round
voyage North Sea/Baltic; HC Shipping & Chartering index
high-reefer 2,500 TEU ships and large
Istanbul Freight Index covering spot freight ex Black Sea
gearless vessels of 8,000+ TEU. n Data per 25.01.2019, Alterations within four weeks
550
500
450
400
350
24.07.18
24.01.19
HANSA International Maritime Journal – 156. Jahrgang – 2019 – Nr. 2 11