Quo vadis, traffic?

REPORT | REPORT
Staugefahr verspricht. Die Nachrichten im Autoradio
vermelden eine Kollision zweier Satelliten. Wer hätte im
Jahr 2006 gedacht, dass wir gut zehn Jahre später auch
noch mit Stau im Weltall zu kämpfen haben. In der Studie
von acatech war davon jedenfalls nichts zu lesen.
// This is the year 2020. During the morning drive to
work; our navigation unit cleverly avoids all traffic
jams. The data of the current road situation are received
from outer space, for – as planned – the first
European satellite navigation system Galileo replaced
the former US system GPS in 2010. The daily radio
messages about traffic jams make us think back to
the year 2006 …
FUTUROLOGY
This trip into the future is fictional. But some details
of it may become true. The “Union der Deutschen Akademien
der Wissenschaften“ (acatech) in a current
study titled “Mobility 2020 – perspectives for tomorrow’s
traffic” forecasts the extent and limits of traffic
in Germany. Their conclusion: more traffic! But this is
only half the truth – as it is inexact. Precisely, the researchers
forecast a plus of 34 percent for lorry traffic
for the period 2002 to 2020, for rail cargo traffic they
even forecast an increase of 55 percent. With 20 percent,
car traffic is third in the statistics. Where there
were three lorries in 2002, there will be four 18 years
later; a traffic jam of 200 cars will cause 240 drivers
to stand still in 2020, and who lives near a railway
line will hear twice as many cargo trains roll past.
VERKEHR UND INFRASTRUKTUR IN
DEUTSCHLAND IN ZAHLEN (STAND: 2006)
TRAFFIC AND INFRASTRUCTURE
IN GERMANY IN FIGURES (EX: 2006)
Bundesfernstraßen / Federal highways 53.183 km
Bundesautobahnen / Federal motorways 12.044 km
Bundesstraßen / Federal roads 41.139 km
Anzahl Pkw / Number of cars 46,1 Mio. million
Anzahl Lkw / Number of lorries 2,6 Mio. million
Anzahl Binnenschiffe (2004)
Number of inland navigation vessels (2004)
3.616
Anzahl Luftfahrzeuge (2004)
Number of aircraft (2004)
19.956
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland
Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
More traffic; but the researchers do not give this
slogan for any place in equal measure. While a strong
traffic growth is expected for the areas of Hamburg,
the Ruhr area, Frankfurt/Main, Mannheim, Stuttgart/
Karlsruhe, and Munich, the institution, deliberately
called after the combination of academy and technology,
assumes stagnation or even a decrease of traffic
in the New Laender. Exception: Berlin and its
surroundings. Accordingly, professor Franz Pischinger,
leader of the “Mobility 2020“ project, demands:
“We want to show that a demand-oriented promotion
of road and rail is badly needed.”
DIVERSION REQUIRED
Exactly – for making up the balance and forecasting
alone does not change anything – a solution is
urgently required: That’s why acatech, in 2006, proposes
two models for diverting our course in future –
away from what in the end will certainly lead to the
collapse of traffic. One model for financing the highway
infrastructure envisages the partial replacement
of vehicle and fuel taxes by a road royalty. A second
proposal aims at continuing to finance the road
traffic infrastructure projects by the Government. In
this case, however, part of the tax income should be
fixed for these projects.
CITY CENTRES WITHOUT LORRIES
Another attempt to get the growing traffic under
control is e.g. named “environment badge” – German
cities let lorries drive through depending on the current
particulate matter content in the air. Cities as
London or Stockholm try to keep the cars out of the
city centre by means of a toll. But also politicians
have means to prepare the way for traffic. Thus the
“Bundesverkehrswegeplan 2003” (federal traffic route
plan 2003) provides a financial volume of about 150
billion Euros for the three transport ways rail, road,
and waterway for the period of 2001 to 2015. About
83 billion Euros are just planned for the maintenance
of the existing infrastructure and about 66 billion
Euros for new projects and extensions.
TRAFFIC JAM IN OUTER SPACE
Back to the future: it is closing time in the year 2020.
We are driving home on the route with as few traffic
jams as possible, due to the satellite-based navigation
system. Radio news reports the collision of two satellites.
Who, in 2006, would have thought that there
would be traffic jams even in outer space? Nothing
could be read about this in the acatech study.
30 trailerforum 3/2006