SPEciAL - ALU-WEB.DE

EcONOMicS
Non-Chalco alumina offers were indicated
at yuan 2,550 to 2,580 per tonne,
ex-plant, at the end of September, up
about yuan 20 to 30. The Australian
alumina price assessment was revised
to USD320-340 per tonne, CIF
China, at the end of September, from
USD300-320 per tonne earlier.
The Dow Jones reported in September
that BHP Billiton was moving
its alumina pricing away from the
traditional method of benchmarking
it as a percentage of the LME aluminium
price. Jon Dudas, President of
Aluminium BHP, said: “BHP Billiton
is present in the integrated chain, but
we strive to price products in their respective
markets, for example, in relation
to on-demand supply fundamentals
of the industry, rather than linked
to the LME.” Alumina contracts are
usually priced at between 11% and
14% of the LME aluminium price.
Automobile sales and production
General Motors said it was on track
to post its first monthly y-o-y profit
as its US sales had increased for the
first time in 21 months, amid signs of
a gradual recovery for the industry
and the overall economy. US auto
sales were down 27% in the first nine
months of this year and down 23% in
September, being at their lowest level
since the early 1980s. Total US sales
are expected to reach 10.5m units this
year, compared to 16.1m in 2007. The
US auto industry has reached a “firm
bottom” and is poised for a rebound
that will start next year and continue
at least through 2015, said AutoNation
Chief Executive Mike Jackson.
Chinese auto sales rose 83% y-oy
in September, to 1.02m units, so
exceeding US auto sales. This best
illustrates how the two economies
are performing under current crisis
conditions, though the pace of growth
in China’s automobile industry may
slow down in the next year or two
due to overcapacity.
The world’s car market may take
as long as five years to recover from
the recession, with growth depending
on economic expansion in China
Supply/demand imbalance continues
World production and consumption of primary aluminium outside China in 1 000 tonnes
Hydro comments: • Apparent annualised imbalance of 2.5 to 3.0 million tonnes in Q3 • Partly
mitigated by China importing 1.3 million tonnes January to August 2009 • Production stabilised
since Q2 2009 • Improved demand throughout 2009 • Analyst reports indicate some build-up of
unreported stocks in Q3
and India, according to the German
Association of the Automotive Industry
(VDA). Meanwhile China is more
important to the car industry than the
USA: production in China is expected
to reach 12m vehicles this year and
China will become the world’s largest
market for the first time in history.
European carmakers produced
1.72m vehicles in September, a decline
of 3.5% over the same period
last year. New car sales in Europe rose
6.3% to 1.39m units in September as
European ‘cash for clunkers’ schemes
boosted sales, according to the European
carmakers’ association ACEA.
During the first nine months in 2009
sales of new cars in the eurozone were
lower by 6.6% over the same period
of 2008. Germany was once again the
star performing national market with
sales up 21% in September.
In general, ‘cash for clunkers’
programmes significantly increased
automobile sales during the summer
months worldwide, while after their
termination sales are lower but still
higher compared to the first half of the
year. Sales in Western countries are
expected gradually to increase in the
following years, and will reach 2007
levels in 2013, according to industry
experts.
Effects of the US dollar
The US dollar has been gradually falling
in recent weeks, to over 1.5 per
euro in October, before it strengthened
to 1.47 per euro at the end of
the month. However, despite the
current temporary strength, some
leading banks and currency analysts
expect that the dollar will continue
on the way down until the middle of
next year, to around 1.6 per euro and
maybe even lower.
The dollar was an “over-owned”
currency and is likely to fall to an alltime
low against major counterparts,
said Bill Gross, a founder and co-chief
investment officer of the world’s biggest
manager of bond funds, Pacific
Investment Management Co.
Base metals prices have shown
high sensitivity to the dollar change,
especially in recent weeks, which indicates
the lack of real demand in the
market.
20 ALUMINIUM · 12/2009
Source and diagram: Hydro