Nicola Arndt und Matthias Pohl - Neobiota

Anwendung und Auswertung der Karte der natürlichen Vegetation Europas 2005 439-452 Bundesamt für Naturschutz, Bonn
Anwendung (und Auswertung) der Karte der natürlichen Vegetation Europas für
Auswirkungen und Szenarios von Klimaänderungen
Application (and Analysis) of the Map of the Natural Vegetation of Europe with Regard
to the Impacts and Scenarios of Climate Change
GIAN-RETO WALTHER
Zusammenfassung
Basierend auf dem jüngsten Bericht der IPCC wird ein Überblick über die globale Klimaentwicklung
der vergangenen 140 Jahre gegeben sowie über die mittels Proxidaten rekonstruierte
Klimaentwicklung der vergangenen 1000 Jahre. Der Einfluß menschlicher Aktivitäten auf den Verlauf
dieser Entwicklung wird kurz erläutert, bevor Beispiele für die Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung auf
biologische Systeme vorgestellt und diskutiert werden. Auf dieser Basis werden anhand eines
Fallbeispiels (Schweiz) Möglichkeiten der Anwendung (und Auswertung) der Karte der natürlichen
Vegetation Europas im Hinblick auf Szenarios der Klimaänderung aufgezeigt. Erkenntnisse aus
Modellen werden mit Resultaten aus Felduntersuchungen verglichen und bezüglich ihrer
Übereinstimmungen bzw. Unterschiede diskutiert.
Abstract
The present paper summarises the recent findings from the IPCC Third Assessment Reports and
reflects the most important aspects with regard to the effects on Central European vegetation
composition and distribution. An overview on the climatic history of the last 140 years, based on
measured data, and the last millennium, reconstructed from proxy data, is provided. The influence of
human activities on the global climate is highlighted and some examples from recent findings on the
regional impacts of climate change on the behaviour and ranges of species are outlined.
The application and evaluation of the map of the natural vegetation of Europe are demonstrated with
regard to the impacts and scenarios of climate change in a case study from Switzerland. A section of
the map of the natural vegetation of Europe has been modified analogously to a model in Switzerland
in which the spatial distribution of the major zonal forest communities is displayed both with today’s
climate and under projected climatic conditions. The results of the models are verified with the
findings of recent field studies. The comparison revealed similar trends, such as the decreasing number
of some montane species as well as the increasing number of thermophilous species, but also
discrepancies. Whereas the outcomes of climate models often present potential future equilibrium
states, they rarely provide an indication of the time required to reach equilibrium or details of the
underlying processes necessary to reach the new state. Thus, field studies are considered the only
possibility to reveal inferences on transitional phases of change as well as unexpected impacts, such as
the occurrence of new elements in the biota which have not been regarded in the model arrangement.
It is suggested that the map of the natural vegetation of Europe be used for the identification of key
areas which are particularly sensitive to climate change and the formulation of assumptions for
potential future impacts of climate change on the vegetation in Europe.
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