Juli 2011 - Danske Analyse - Danske Bank

Nordisk ØkonomiMakroøkonomisk prognoseMakroprognose, Skandinavienår BNP 1 forb. 1Privat-Off.forb. 1Fasteinv. 1Lagerinv.2Eksport1Import 1Inflation1Ledighed3Off.budget 4Off.gæld 4Betal.bal 4Danmark 2010 1.7 2.3 0.7 -3.2 0.9 3.8 3.9 2.3 6.0 -2.9 43.7 5.22011 1.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 7.0 5.2 2.8 5.8 -4.0 42.1 5.42012 2.0 2.8 0.5 4.0 0.1 2.6 3.7 1.9 5.6 -4.1 44.8 4.8Sverige 2010 5.4 3.4 2.5 7.1 2.1 11.0 12.8 1.3 8.4 -0.2 39.7 6.22011 3.5 2.2 0.8 6.8 0.5 9.3 9.4 3.2 7.5 0.0 37.3 5.82012 2.0 2.1 -0.1 3.3 -0.4 4.3 4.1 2.7 6.7 0.1 36.0 5.8Norge 2010 2.1 3.7 2.2 -7.4 3.2 -1.7 9.0 2.5 3.6 - - -2011 3.2 3.4 2.3 7.2 1.5 -0.4 7.3 1.8 3.3 - - -2012 3.6 4.3 3.0 7.2 -0.4 2.5 4.3 1.5 3.1 - - -Makroprognose, Eurolandår BNP 1 forb. 1Privat-Off.forb. 1Fasteinv. 1Lagerinv.2Eksport1Import 1Inflation1Ledighed3Off.budget 4Off.gæld 4Betal.bal 4Euroland 2010 1.8 0.8 0.7 -0.9 0.5 11.0 9.1 1.6 10.1 -6.0 85.1 -0.42011 2.2 1.3 0.7 3.6 0.0 7.0 6.0 2.7 9.8 -4.8 88.4 -0.12012 1.9 1.5 0.2 4.5 0.0 5.1 5.2 2.0 9.4 -3.9 89.1 0.1Tyskland 2010 3.5 0.4 2.0 11.8 -0.1 14.4 13.8 1.2 7.3 -3.7 75.7 4.82011 3.0 1.6 1.1 7.5 0.0 8.6 8.5 1.6 6.7 -3.0 76.0 4.32012 2.3 1.9 1.0 6.0 0.0 6.0 6.2 1.8 6.2 -2.4 75.5 4.0Frankrig 2010 1.5 1.6 1.4 -1.6 0.5 9.9 7.7 1.7 9.6 -7.7 83.0 -3.32011 2.1 2.0 0.4 3.0 0.1 6.8 5.9 1.6 9.4 -6.5 87.0 -3.12012 1.9 2.0 0.3 3.4 0.0 5.8 5.7 1.7 9.1 -6.0 90.0 -3.0Italien 2010 1.1 0.7 -0.4 3.0 0.1 7.9 8.1 1.7 8.4 -5.0 118.9 -3.22011 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.9 0.1 7.7 6.4 1.8 8.5 -4.0 120.5 -3.02012 1.7 1.2 0.0 4.4 0.0 6.2 6.1 1.8 8.3 -3.5 120.4 -2.8Spanien 2010 -0.1 1.3 -0.7 -7.0 0.1 10.3 5.4 1.7 20.1 -9.3 64.4 -4.82011 0.9 0.6 -0.9 -1.9 0.0 6.2 2.7 1.4 21.0 -6.9 70.0 -4.02012 1.3 1.0 -0.1 3.0 0.0 5.1 4.3 1.3 20.5 -5.8 73.5 -3.5Finland 2010 3.1 2.6 0.4 0.8 - 5.1 2.6 1.2 8.4 -2.5 48.4 2.92011 3.6 1.9 0.5 6.0 - 6.0 5.0 3.2 7.4 -1.4 50.5 2.02012 2.7 2.0 0.5 4.0 - 5.5 3.5 2.4 7.0 -0.8 52.0 2.2Makroprognose, GlobalårBNP 1Privatforb.1Off.forb. 1Fasteinv. 1Lagerinv.2Eks-Inflation1Ledighed3Off.budget 4Off.gæld 4Betal.bal 4Kina 2010 10.3 - - - - - - 3.3 4.3 -3.3 23.6 5.22011 9.4 - - - - - - 5.0 4.0 -2.2 20.5 4.02012 9.1 - - - - - - 3.1 - - - 4. 7port 1 Import 1USA 2010 2.9 1.7 1.0 3.9 0.4 11.7 12.6 1.6 9.6 -8.8 91.6 -3.22011 2.6 2.8 -0.8 6.6 0.4 8.7 6.4 2.3 8.9 -10.7 99.5 -3.22012 3.1 3.0 -1.0 9.8 0.0 9.4 9.1 1.7 8.2 -8.0 102.9 -2.8Japan 2010 4.3 1.9 2.3 0.1 0.6 24.1 1.1 -0.7 4.7 -8.0 199.7 3.62011 0.0 -0.5 2.3 1.4 -0.4 1.9 5.1 0.3 4.3 -8.9 212.7 2.32012 3.0 1.6 0.9 5.2 0.3 6.7 4.2 0.6 4.0 -8.1 218.7 2.3UK 2010 1.3 0.8 0.8 3.0 1.5 5.3 8.5 3.3 8.0 -9.9 80.3 -2.52011 1.4 0.5 -0.2 4.1 0.0 8.7 6.8 4.0 7.6 -8.0 88.2 -2.72012 1.7 1.4 -1.0 6.4 -0.2 5.6 4.1 2.7 7.5 - - -2.9Schweiz2010 2.0 1.8 0.5 2.1 -0.7 7.0 5.0 1.0 3.8 -1.0 40.0 9.02011 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.5 -0.2 4.0 4.0 1.2 3.5 -0.5 39.0 10.02012 - - - - - - - - - - - -Kilde: OECD og Danske Bank. 1) % å/å. 2)Vækstbidrag, %. 3) % af arbejdsstyrken. 4) % af BNP.36 | Juli 2011www.danskeresearch.com