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DPSIR-indicators
Driving Forces
Pressures/State
12
conditions for tree growth, vegetation composition and leaching of
nutrients.
Internationally the work is based on the fundaments of critical
loads/levels of ecosystems. This has enabled the Task Force on Integrated
Assessment to develop the gap closure approach for the
abatement work: The gap between present exceedances of defined
critical loads/levels of ecosystems within certain grids and nonexceedance
has to be closed by, e.g., 50%. The ultimate goal is 100%
reduction of exceedances, but 50% is also ambitious. The procedure
for obtaining such goals with less possible costs uses a number of
complex models and data sets including cost-effective optimisation
procedures.
Critical loads and levels are in a broader context also a delimitation
of the environmental space of human activities: the sustainability of
human activities is delimited by the well-defined and internationally
agreed concept of critical loads and levels of ecosystems.
The DPSIR concept is used in this report for structuring the analysis.
D means Driving forces or the economic development of the different
sectors; P means Pressures or the emission of air pollutants in this
context; S means State of air pollutants, i.e. concentration, transport
and deposition; I means impacts or the effects of air pollutants on
humans, ecosystems and materials; and R means responses or the
political options for abatement measures.
In Denmark the macro-economic model ADAM is used by the central
administration for economic planning. It is a national empirical topdown
model operating with 19 production classes and 12 consumer
classes. This model is the basis for emission satellite-modules
(EMMA) covering CO 2 , SO x and NO x and as a combination of technical
and economical models. NO x and SO x are both long-range transported
pollutants and the geographical disaggregation is not very
crucial. The sectors of energy and traffic have been disaggregated
into sub-sectors, but the scale is still the whole country.
ADAM is also coupled to an agricultural sector model (ESMER-
ALDA) and an environmental model (NP-model). This model describes
the environmental consequences of nitrogen and phoshphorus
leaching from 48 run-off catchments areas as a function of
changes in the agricultural production. The NP-model also calculates
ammonia emissions from agricultural sector on county level.
Much of ammonia is deposited within 1 kilometre from the emission
source and therefore geographical disaggregation is needed. So far
this has been done only to county-level, but more disaggregation is
needed for detailed analysis of the ammonia problem.
Reliable emission inventories are important in an integrated analysis.
Most emissions are calculated by models and verified by measurements.
The Task Force on Emission Inventories is coordinating the
official national input data for the European Monitoring and Evaluation
Programme (EMEP) emission database under the Geneva Convention.
This database includes official national statistics, emission
scenarios and includes emission estimates where data is not avail-