Fremtidens ældre - Amternes og Kommunernes Forskningsinstitut

far below the national average in the Copenhagen metropolitan area and in
the County of Aarhus (where there are large influxes of especially college
students and where employment has been on the rise for the last decade).
In contrast, the problems will be considerably greater in peripheral areas
such as Bornholm and Lolland-Falster (as well as in South Jutland).
The educational level of the elderly will increase. In 1990, two-thirds
of 65-year-olds were unskilled, a quarter were skilled, while the last 10 per
cent were college educated. In 2030, only 30 per cent will be unskilled, 45
per cent skilled, and a total of 25 per cent will be college educated.
The health of the elderly will also improve – many more will be able
to care for themselves in their own homes (without outside help). Today, a
70-year-old can do much more than a person of the same age could 20
years ago. This has been the trend so far, and this is how it is expected to
continue.
Generally, the incomes of the elderly in Denmark are also expected to
increase over the next few decades, as more and more people have paid
into pension plans during their active working years.
On the other hand, the disparity will be greater: the affluent pensioners
will become steadily richer compared to those living off state pensions
alone. The latter in particular, will be clearly left in the lurch by the income
growth of the affluent pensioners.
Increasing expenditure
From 2000 to 2030, demographic development alone will lead to an increase
of approximately 23 per cent in public expenditure on the elderly.
Increased transfer incomes make up 60 per cent of the growth, while services
make up 40 per cent. Three-quarters of the growth is due to elderly
people over 65. However, the increase in expenditure on the elderly is by
no means the result of demography alone. A large proportion will come
from increasing service standards and transfer incomes – this could, in fact,
easily become the greatest problem.
The elderly issue is not only a Danish phenomenon. On the contrary,
the problems are even more pronounced in other OECD countries, such as
Italy, Spain and Germany. In part, these countries experience greater
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