Fremtidens ældre - Amternes og Kommunernes Forskningsinstitut

Summary
Elderly of the future. Burden or resource?
by Tina Honoré Kongsø and Nils Groes, August 2002
The Danish welfare state is facing a challenge in the next decades, where
the number of elderly, who will need both publicly paid services and transfer
incomes, will increase steadily. In 2030, the number of elderly (over
60) will have risen more than 50 per cent above the level in 2000. And the
number of (particularly needy) elderly over 80 will increase by approximately
75 per cent in the same period.
Since the 1970s, the retirement age for men in Denmark has fallen
slightly, while it has risen considerably for women. At the same time, the
life spans for both genders have increased. As a result, Danish men live a
few years longer as pensioners, while Danish women live a few years less
as pensioners (although they still live longer as pensioners than men).
The number of Danes engaged in active employment does not seem to
change markedly over the next 30 years. However, this means there will be
fewer Danes engaged in active employment per elderly person (from 4 today
to 2.7 in 2030).
Of course these prognoses are riddled with uncertainty, and yet there
are few long-term projections regarding social conditions that are as certain
as these.
In Denmark, the regional distribution of elderly is more uncertain than
the national. But the data suggest that, in 2030, the share of elderly will be
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